On the Turkish President’s Visit to Russia Sochi

Reasons for the visit:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made an official one-day visit to Russia ,Sochi , during which he met Russian President Vladimir Putin, as their last meeting was more than a year ago and this visit comes after President Erdogan’s victory in the last presidential election last May.

The visit was delayed due to the two sides coordinating over the place where the Turkish and Russian presidents would meet. He initially announced that he would be in Turkey, and then statements began to indicate the possibility of changing the place. It seems that the main reason was to avoid the consequences of the International Criminal Court’s decision to arrest President Putin, so a s it was chosen for the summit in the Russian city of Sochi, which is the closest Russian point to Turkey and is located on the Black Sea which connects Turkey and Russia.
The summit came after a cooling in Turkish-Russian relations following President Erdogan’s permission for a group of Azov nationalist regiment fighters to return to Ukraine after they had previously been exchanged with Russian prisoners and handed over to Turkey, provided that they would not return to Ukraine and fight, but they did return and it is said that they joined the fighting fronts .
This is one of the reasons why the Russian leadership was upset. In addition to Turkey’s approval of Sweden’s accession to NATO, as well as Erdogan’s declaration of his support for Ukraine’s future accession to NATO. Despite this as the Kremlin stated, the issue of the Azov Regiment was not discussed at the summit because of its special sensitivity.
However, Russia does not have many options to respond to Erdogan. On the contrary, Putin expressed at the summit Russia’s desire to expand and deepen relations in all fields. An example of this is Putin’s decision to allow a reduction and postponement of Turkey’s payments for Russian gas imports, in order to spare Ankara additional repercussions from an economic crisis, which contributed to Erdogan winning a new term in May.
Likewise, President Putin had ordered the extension of the grain deal more than once before the Turkish presidential election, which reached last July.
It seems that Turkey is the only country influential in the Russian-Ukrainian scene.
The discussions witnessed a special meeting between the Russian and Turkish Defense Ministers.
The discussions focused on bilateral relations, the grain deal file, peace in Ukraine and regional files.

It can be expected that both sides wanted to address a number of issues such as:

The main topic of the summit is to restore the Ukrainian grain export deal while taking into account Russian demands.
The grain deal and its assembly in Turkey for export to other countries. Here, the State of Qatar is supporting the process of transferring it from Turkey to Africa and other poor countries.
President Erdogan will participate in the G-20 summit in India in a few days and he will convey to it the results of his talks and his plan for peace in Ukraine after his meeting with Putin.
How to avoid US and Western sanctions, trade between the two countries and the use of national currencies. Therefore, the heads of the Russian and Turkish Central Banks were present at the meeting.
The possibility of building a new nuclear power station.
Building large tanks to collect Russian natural gas on Turkish territory.
The situation in the Karabakh region is witnessing a significant escalation these days.
The Armenian Prime Minister announced that Armenia’s decision to establish a security partnership with Russia is considered a strategic mistake, knowing that Armenia contains a Russian military base and has been an ally of Russia for decade
Making progress in resolving the Syrian crisis: reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus – returning Syrian refugees from Turkey to their country fixing problem of the Kurdish SDF forces, which Turkey describes as terrorists, in northeastern Syria, supported by the United States.

He participated in the talks from the Russian side:

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov
Putin’s assistants Maxim Oreshkin and Yuri Ushakov
Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev
Central Bank President Elvira Nabiulina
Director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation Dmitry Shugaev
Chairman of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev
Rosatom head Alexei Likhachev .

From the Turkish side:

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan
Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alp Arslan Bayraktar
Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Simsek
Defense Minister Yasar Guler .
Minister of Industry and Technology Mehmet Fatih Kacır
Minister of Agriculture and Forestry Ibrahim Yumakli
Trade Minister Omer Polat
Central Bank President Hafize Gaye Erkan
The head of the intelligence service, Ibrahim Kalin
Head of Defense Industries Haluk Gorgon
Head of the Communication Department Fahrettin Altun.

Regarding the course and results of the discussions:

The meeting lasted for 3 hours, half of which was bilateral and the rest with the participation of the two delegations.
The Russian and Turkish sides discussed the Ukrainian crisis and the issue of stabilizing global food security, especially the process of exporting grain to countries most in need and assisting the State of Qatar in carrying out this task as an additional mechanism for the basic grain deal that was suspended by the Russian Federation in July 2023.
In the talks, the Russian President and the Turkish President touched on Middle East issues, especially the normalization of relations between Ankara and Damascus, as well as the issue of restoring stability in Libya and changes in Africa.
And Erdogan discussed bilateral relations between the two countries and ways to support trade ties, especially in the field of energy.

President Putin’s statements:

The meeting took place in a constructive and practical atmosphere and all major issues were discussed.
Putin expressed Russia’s readiness to work in partnership with Turkey and Qatar To develop the “Black Sea” deal, to export grain .
Putin also announced that within two weeks Russia would start supplying grain to six needy African countries free of charge .
Putin explained: “We agreed to implement a set of commitments related to Russia’s interests, through the mediation of the Turkish President with the United Nations, but none of the commitments towards Russia were implemented, and we renewed the deal three times without witnessing the implementation of these promises and this usually happens with our Western partners.” However, they deceived us more than once and did not achieve anything of what they promised, and for our part, we are ready to resume our participation in the deal, but only when what they promised is accomplished and within a few days.’’
The West refuses to lift sanctions on Russia in the field of exporting grain and fertilizer and in the field of importing agricultural machinery and enabling the Russian Agricultural Bank to use the SWIFT system, as well as Russia benefiting from the ship insurance system during the transportation of grain ( noting that American and Western official in general have repeatedly stressed that the sanctions do not include foodstuffs and medicines).
Ukraine used sea lanes intended for grain for military purposes.
There is a problem in the distribution of grain exports, as only 3% reached poor countries i.e. less than one million tons, while the amount exported was about 30 million tons,while Europe acquired the rest of the Ukrainian grain.
He continued: “Western promises to Russia must be implemented first. We have harvested 130 million tons of grain and we will allocate 60 million tons for export. Turkey is an important partner and we are ready to work together to develop the Black Sea deal in partnership with Turkey and Qatar, to export grain to African countries “.
He said: “We are looking at working with Turkey and Qatar to supply one million tons of grain as an alternative to the “grain deal,” and this represents a contribution to solving the food problem in African countries .”
Trade volume for 2022 increased by 86%.
Russian tourism is the first in Turkey.
Putin accused Ukraine of trying to attack the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream gas pipelines with marches.
In 2022, Russia sent 21 billion cubic meters of gas to Turkey, and during the months from January to August of 2023, Turkey sold 10 billion cubic meters of gas.
It is also possible to sell Russian gas to Europe through Turkey.

Erdogan’s remarks :

Erdogan said that the summit is important for the entire world.
Relations between Turkey and Russia have entered a qualitatively new stage.
Erdogan made it clear that the upcoming meeting of the heads of the Turkish and Russian central banks is important with regard to moving towards the use of local currencies in commercial exchanges, especially since the volume of trade exchange between the two countries currently amounts to $62 billion.
Erdogan expressed his hope to raise trade exchanges with Russia to 100 billion dollars.
It is necessary for Ukraine to take more flexible steps with regard to the Black Sea Initiative and its work so that an estimated 44 % of the volume of grain should reach at least the poor countries. We together with Russia, hope to transfer the grain to poor African countries, give about 100 million tons to these countries, and provide logistical services for this process free of charge.
Erdogan stressed that “Qatar’s participation in these operations is very important,” noting that the trio of Russia, Turkey and Qatar can take effective steps to implement this initiative.
The establishment of large reservoirs to collect Russian gas will strengthen our bilateral relations.
We prepared, in cooperation with the United Nations, a file of proposals on the grain deal agreement and that Ukraine should facilitate its approach to taking joint steps with Russia.

Opinions and estimates of experts and officials:

Russian Presidential Assistant, Yuri Ushakov, said that there was no indication from Ukraine regarding its readiness for peace negotiations with Russia, and he said on Monday, September 4, 2023, that no signal had arrived from Kyiv regarding the possibility of negotiation, he added that the Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, who Discussing the issue of negotiation with Ukrainian officials before the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi did not convey any message to Moscow.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba announced that the Sochi summit is the last opportunity to revive the grain deal agreement. Ukraine has asked Turkey to help revive this agreement.
International political expert: It seems that President Putin is not currently ready to resume the grain deal and this will continue until next November.
Erdogan sought to present his image as an active international leader seeking peace, while Putin wanted to show his strong personality in light of delivering a message to the Russian interior that the West and Ukraine are obstructing the grain agreements.
A Western journalist comments that Putin does not need to extend the grain deal because it is in favor of Ukraine. On the contrary, he is bombing ports such as Odessa and Mikalev on the Black Sea, ports on the Danube River and land centers using rail transport.
Alexander Buffett – political expert and journalist: It seems that progress has occurred in the talks and contacts with Kyiv, Moscow and Ankara will continue. The West wants to embarrass Russia and show that it is not cooperating and that is the cause of a global food security crisis.

Expert Nikolai Toburin – Director of the European Information Center at MGIMO University:

Russian and Turkish political experts and analysts talked about the possibility of reviving the grain deal, but in a smaller volume than before, i.e. about one million tons of grain, while the export, according to the deal, amounted to 30 million tons of Ukrainian grain.
Turkey will import the quantity and process it and Qatar will collect part of the quantity and export it to Africa.
Russian farmers are wondering about the benefit of exporting free quantities at a time when they need to buy agricultural equipment and fertilizers to cultivate their fields.

Analysis:

It seems that restoring the grain deal is very difficult in the current circumstances. Therefore, Russia is considering exporting a limited amount of about one million tons through cooperation with Turkey and Qatar without Ukraine..
While Ukraine is trying to export from its ports through the waters belonging to NATO countries that Russia cannot bomb, as well as through ports on the Danube River and a land anchor, through agreements with Western countries and Turkey without the participation of Russia.
In the end, achieving progress in Russian-Ukrainian relations depends on finding a way out of the fighting and Russian military intervention in Ukraine and this brings us back to the various peace initiatives that were not fully welcomed by the parties to the conflic
Therefore, the Turkish President arrived in the city of Sochi to present Turkish-UN proposals to the Russian President to resume work on the grain deal soon, in addition to implementing Putin’s initiative regarding transporting Russian grain to Turkey and distributing it to poor countries with the help of the State of Qatar, so that the implementation of this initiative would be a compromise solution for Moscow’s approval later.
On the implementation of the basic grains deal, as the two sides after the press conference at the conclusion of the summit, expressed that the new mechanism will not be a substitute for the basic deal.
Experts point out that the State of Qatar’s agreement to support the new mechanism comes within the forms of support and assistance to the least developed countries, and the Turkish and Russian Presidents praised the participation of the State of Qatar at the Sochi Summit .
The visit of the Turkish president to Russia illustrates the mediation efforts that Ankara is working on in the current period to resolve the Ukrainian crisis and resume work on the grain deal.
According to experts, Erdogan is working to reduce tensions between the two sides, as he sent his foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, two weeks ago to Kyiv and Moscow to ease tensions between the two countries, before the summit that brought him together with Putin.
On the other hand, economic analysts believe that Ukraine will eventually be satisfied with making concessions in order to resume the basic grain deal, because Kyiv is currently exporting its grain through land corridors, which cannot absorb more than 50% of its crops and transporting grain across land is fraugh.
Risks resulting from Russian bombing For the Odessa region and the Danube River, where the basic infrastructure for transporting grain is locat
The other factor putting pressure on the Ukrainian authorities is the position of the country’s farmers, who harvested huge crops when the deal was signed before work on it was later suspended.
Stability in the Black Sea region, especially on its banks, in Ukraine’s Odessa and Crimea is considered an essential guarantor for the resumption of the basic agreement and the transfer of grain to world markets, to maintain the stability of global food security.