Russia-US tensions, which flared up in November 2021 with the Ukraine crisis, escalated into the war on February 24, 2022, when Russia attacked Ukraine’s Donbas region. The Western world, led by the US and the UK, imposed sanctions on Russia, and Russia responded in kind. This report analyses security policy developments worldwide in 2022, excluding Turkey, and projects developments into 2023.
Russia-Ukraine War
In the run-up to 2022, Russia launched a prolonged military exercise near Ukraine’s eastern borders with a force of 175,000. Some women and children from the Russian minority in Donbas in eastern Ukraine were transferred to Russia and passports were distributed to Russians in the region. There were cyberattacks on Ukrainian state bodies. Ukraine’s President Vladimir Zelensky, backed by the US and the UK, and his preference for Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the EU, despite Russia, has escalated tensions.
France and Germany’s feeble attempts to de-escalate tensions paled in comparison to the US and UK claims about the “Russian threat”. On February 22, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his TV address, reminded the audience of the existence of the dream of “Tsarist Russia” by stating that there was no such state as Ukraine in history and that Ukrainian territories such as Crimea, Donbas and Odesa belonged to Tsarist Russia. He signed the documents recognizing the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk in Donbas. On February 24, he launched ground and air strikes on Donbas and air (missile-dominated) strikes on the Kyiv and Kherson regions.
Global and Regional Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War
When the war, which was thought to end with Russia’s victory in a short time, dragged on, it became clear that Russia had entered the war unprepared in terms of intelligence, logistics, operations and psychology. While Western countries, especially the USA and the UK, provided arms and equipment to Ukraine, whose resistance was praised in every way, the presence of mercenaries was also noteworthy.
Russia, which took control of the highway connecting Crimea to Russia by land and seized a significant part of Donbas, could not make Ukraine give up. Russia, which paused in the summer months, called 300,000 people to arms with a partial mobilization declaration. On the other hand, Ukraine launched a counter-offensive in early September 2022 and captured some settlements, including Kherson. Russia withdrew its troops east of the Dnieper River and targeted Ukraine’s electric power centres with missile and drone strikes. They entered the winter of 2022/2023 largely without electricity, including in the capital Kiev. Russia, which had invaded Donbass, was also badly damaged, but Ukraine’s determination and will to continue the war could not be broken.
Some of the global and regional impacts of the war are as follows:
– Having failed to convince NATO member states to increase their defence spending under former President Trump, the US achieved its goal with this war. Germany has suddenly decided to dedicate 100 billion euros to military spending. France, which said “NATO is brain-dead!”, has also accepted NATO’s presence in the defence of Europe. After 70 years of Cold War neutrality, Sweden and Finland chose to join NATO.
– More than 7 million Ukrainians, mostly women and children, fled abroad. Poland, known for its harsh treatment of Syrian refugees, showed its double standards in its generosity in welcoming Ukrainians.
– The US, the EU and NATO countries, except Turkey, launched sanctions against Russia. The sanctions included preventing Russia from using the international money transfer system SWIFT. In addition, they have reduced oil and natural gas purchases from Russia. In addition, they have confiscated assets of Russian oligarchs outside of Russia and restricted international transfers by the Russian government and businessmen. Russia also imposed the condition of “selling in rubles!” on “non-Russian friendly” countries that would buy it’s oil and natural gas. EU countries, which are heavily dependent on Russian natural gas, started to buy more liquefied natural gas from the US for this purpose. They mainly turned to the US for armaments. The Nord Stream I/II lines at the bottom of the Baltic Sea, carrying Russian natural gas to Germany, were sabotaged. Faced with an energy crisis, life in Europe became more expensive.
– In the later months of the war, a global food crisis emerged due to the problem of exporting Ukrainian grain. Even in developed countries, basic foodstuffs on the market were snapped up. As a result of Turkey’s initiative and the efforts of the United Nations, the problem was solved through the establishment of headquarters in Istanbul. Russia’s subsequent objections were also overcome by Turkey’s efforts.
– While the countries that owned oil and natural gas made high profits from their sales, India and China started to supply these materials cheaper than Russia.
– Turkey declared the conflict to be a “state of war” under the provisions of the Montreux Convention on the Straits and did not allow the military ships of the littoral countries and the military ships of the littoral countries that were not subject to bases in this sea to enter the Black Sea.
– Military base agreements were signed between Greece and the United States, which turned the port of Alexandroupoli in northern Greece into a terminal port under the pretext of preventing the spread of Russian aggression in the region.
Other Important Developments
Some of the important developments outside the Russia-Ukraine war are as follows:
– On January 2, an uprising in Kazakhstan over the cost of living, corruption, economic inequality etc. was suppressed with the help of Collective Security Treaty Organization troops. In the country where the effects of Founding President Nazarbayev were removed, Kassym Jömert Tokayev won the presidential election in November.
– In 2022, elections were held in 13 countries in Europe. In France, far-right Maria Le Pen made a significant breakthrough but lost in the second round against President Macron, who received the support of the opposition. In Italy, the Brothers of Italy Party (FDI), allegedly
following Mussolini’s policies, and the right-wing alliance led by its President Giorgia Meloni won.
– In China, President Xi Jinping was re-elected in October, becoming the first leader since Mao Zedong to serve more than two terms as party leader.
– In April, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was dismissed and parliament dissolved. In by-elections in October, the PTI, led by Imran Khan, emerged victorious.
– In the early general elections in the TRNC in January, UBP won 24 seats, CTP 18, DP 3, HP 3, and YDP 2 in the 50-seat Republican Assembly.
– As a result of the Congressional elections in the US on November 8, President Biden’s party, the Democrats, lost their majority in the House of Representatives to the Republicans, albeit by a small margin, but did not lose control in the Senate.
– In the early general elections in Israel in November 2022, the right-wing bloc led by former Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu reached the 64 deputies needed to form a government.
– At the G7 summit, a project was announced to prevent China’s development in the global economy, including the “Global Infrastructure and Investment Partnership” program worth 600 billion dollars over five years to developing countries, especially in Africa, 200 of which will be financed by the United States.
– NATO’s Madrid summit discussed increasing and strengthening military power in Europe against the Russian threat. According to the revised “Strategic Concept”, untouched since 2010, NATO has defined Russia and China as “enemies” because they “pose a threat to NATO’s security and interests”. Although it was emphasized that China’s “policies based on force and coercion are a challenge to NATO’s interests, security and values”, it was also warned to keep relations with China open and to prevent China from making the mistake of invading Taiwan.
– China’s military exercises in the region following US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August raised concerns that Taiwan could be subjected to a similar “Ukraine attack”. China’s President Xi Jinping, warned by the United States and the G7 countries, has also announced preparations for an armed reunification of Taiwan with the motherland, if necessary within the next 10 years.
– Crown Prince Charles became king, succeeding Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II, who died in September. Liz Truss, who was elected prime minister in an internal party vote after Conservative leader Boris Johnson resigned as prime minister, resigned 40 days later. This time Indian-born Rishi Sunak was appointed prime minister.
– In December 2022, the African Union-US summit, which tried to send the message that the US could be a more reliable partner than China, decided to invest 55 billion dollars in the continent over the next three years and support the African Union’s membership in the G-20.
– US President Biden’s National Strategy Paper, published in October, emphasized NATO’s deterrence and the support of European partners while drawing attention to the threats posed by Russia and China. “War with China is neither inevitable nor desirable!” said the US Department of Defense Strategy Paper, while Russia was described as an “acute threat”.
– In August, the Biden administration in the US proposed a $280 billion bill to boost chip production in the country, while China allocated $143 billion to the same sector in December.
– In Yemen, where civil war broke out seven years ago, a ceasefire was agreed upon in April but has not been sustained.
– Japan shifted to a security strategy capable of striking enemy bases in the face of threats posed by China’s military expansionism and North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.
– In Iran, several people were killed in September in protests that erupted after a teenager was arrested by morality police for showing her hair.
– During Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s visit to Riyadh in December, it was proposed that energy raw materials be traded in Yuan at the summits he attended. Following this development, China has put into effect the agreements it signed with Iran last year, and is taking root in the Middle East, even in countries that are adversaries of each other, despite the US.
– In addition to those summarized above, other noteworthy developments were the instability in Tunisia, France’s withdrawal from its former colonies Mali and the Central African Republic, the settlement of Russian private military Wagners in these countries, two coups d’état in Burkina Faso, al-Shabaab terrorism in Somalia, the change of government in Brazil following elections, and the China-India and Pakistan-India border conflicts.
2023 Projections
Although the most important expectation is the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia will not end the war without getting what it wants. Ukraine will be able to continue to resist with the support of Western countries. The EU, where the energy crisis has led to street protests, lacks the will to end the war. In the US, where presidential elections are scheduled for November 2024, the war could end in 2025 if one of the candidates has the will to end it. A de-escalation of US-China tensions may also be possible only after the US presidential elections.
In 2023, normal general elections in the EU countries of Poland, Greece, Estonia, Finland and Spain will be determined by the economic problems caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war. Since a significant part of the agricultural land in Ukraine cannot be used due to the war, the yield will be much lower and the global food problem is at the door. In an era of catastrophic climate change, food remains the most strategic commodity.
The increase in armament on a global scale in parallel with the confusion in the political environment in 2022, when polarization took shape on Earth, indicates that tensions will increase in 2023 as well. As tensions between the poles increase, new areas of conflict may be in various regions of the globe, or they may escalate through cyber-attacks, new viral epidemics and the use of artificial intelligence through satellites in space. While this threatening environment screams “I’m coming!”, there is no leadership/management in countries with global influence that can see it or stop it even if they do.
