to normalize relations with the Assad regime, under the pretext of helping the return of refugees by obtaining funds from the Gulf countries for reconstruction, with the wide participation of Russian companies. This was embodied in the numerous visits of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the Russian President’s Special Representative to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, to Arab capitals, especially the Gulf ones.
It seems that the international and regional circumstances, especially the volatile US policy in the region towards some Gulf countries, from the era of President Barack Obama to the administration of President Joe Biden, prompted those countries to expand relations with Moscow in many areas, which constituted a breakthrough for Russian foreign policy, which was subjected to enormous pressure and wide Western sanctions. Especially during the past year after the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Russia suffered heavy economic, political and military losses, which made it turn east and south and focus on expanding cooperation with the countries of Asia, the Middle East and Africa as an alternative to Western countries that Moscow classified as “non-states” Girlfriend”.
And since Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated on 12/15/2022 that he proposed to President Putin to hold a tripartite meeting with the head of the Syrian regime, Bashar al-Assad, to discuss reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus, which surprised many, as it was expected that this proposal would come from Putin, not Erdogan. However, there are reasons that seem to have prompted Turkey for this matter, which are the circumstances surrounding Turkey and the enormous political challenges associated with the fateful parliamentary and presidential elections in May 2023, and the Turkish opposition’s trading in the card of the Syrian refugees, whose number about 4 million, noting that they play an active role in developing the Turkish economy ,according to the admission of senior Turkish officials. There are also economic challenges embodied in the high inflation rate, and the great earthquake came to inflict great losses on Turkey and the Syrians in lives and property..
On the other hand, it must be noted that Moscow is very interested in the results of the Turkish elections and has a great interest in President Erdogan winning a new term. Otherwise, Russian interests may be exposed to great risks. In this context, it is possible to understand Moscow’s agreement to extend the Ukrainian grain export deal, under Turkish and UN supervision, until May 18, that is, until after the end of the Turkish election.
On 12/28/2022, a tripartite meeting was held for the defense ministers of Russia, Turkey and the Syrian regime in Moscow, they agreed to make some security and military arrangements, provided that this meeting would be followed by the meeting of the deputy foreign ministers of the three countries in Moscow on March 16, 2023, but Bashar al-Assad’s statements in Moscow thwarted the holding of that meeting, as it stipulated the withdrawal of Turkish forces from northern Syria, as well as the cessation of support for the Syrian opposition (which it describes as terrorist) noting that Moscow calls for holding a summit meeting without any conditions and Ankara declares the same.
But Iran found itself marginalized in this process. Its officials made shuttle visits to Damascus, Ankara, Moscow, and imposed their participation in the negotiations, because they hold strong cards in Syria and as the saying goes, “or defect or ruin.”
After great effort and pressure from Putin on al-Assad to hold a meeting between the four deputy foreign ministers, al-Assad formally agreed, but he continued in his obstinacy and determination to enrich his money without any regard for the position of his ally Moscow, whose Foreign Minister Lavrov said in 2018 if it were not for Moscow, Damascus would have fallen. .
As for Assad, he considers himself victorious, and he is not obliged to make any concessions or settlements with his opponents, knowing that Moscow is fully aware of the inability to achieve stability in Syria without achieving a specific political settlement, even if it declares the implementation of Security Council Resolution 2254, but since the start of the Astana negotiations has been circumventing decisions international.
It seems that Al-Assad understood the game well and realized that Moscow itself is not serious about implementing Security Council resolutions, especially since it used the veto more than 15 times in defense of the Al-Assad regime despite its commission of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria.
On 4/4/2023, a meeting of the deputy foreign ministers of Russia, Turkey, Iran and the Syrian regime was held in Moscow, but it was not able to set a date for the meeting of the foreign ministers of the four countries. Rather, it was agreed on general matters, which is the continuation of consultations regarding Syria . Of course, this meeting was preceded by a fiery statement by the Syrian regime’s deputy foreign minister, Ayman Soussan, that Damascus will not reconcile, and there will be no summit meeting until after the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syria.
Therefore, Lavrov visited Ankara on April 6, 2023. He held talks with the Turkish president and his foreign minister about pursuing reconciliation efforts between Ankara and Assad. It seems that they failed to reach an agreement on the possibility of holding the meeting scheduled for 4/11/2023 for the foreign ministers, Tehran and Damascus participated in the online talks to save the situation and they were unable to agree on setting a date for the meeting of the four foreign ministers, but the defense ministers and heads of the security services returned.They met again in Moscow on April 25, 2023.
It seems that the last meeting took place in a charged atmosphere and they did not reach specific agreements other than general terms such as the unity of the Syrian territories, the fight against extremist and terrorist forces, the achievement of security and stability in Syria, as stated in the statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense. It is noteworthy that the Ministry of Defense of the Syrian regime and its media propagandized that the meeting discussed the issue of ” the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territory, ” and this is a clear lie.
In the opinion of political analyst Rami Al-Shaer, “the meeting of the defense ministers also discussed the very complex situation in the north-east and north-west of Syria , and they are charged with helping the Damascus authorities so that they begin to take the initiative to negotiate with the opposition present in these areas, which represents no less than 8 million Syrian citizens.
The territorial integrity of Syria and its full sovereignty over all of its lands cannot be guaranteed without reaching a formula of understanding with this category of the Syrian people . Despite pessimism about the continuation of efforts for reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus, the Turkish foreign minister is optimistic that the quadripartite meeting of foreign ministers will be held at the beginning of May, and it may be agreed to hold a quadripartite summit in Moscow and most likely it will not be before the elections for Turkey.
When following up on the Turkish position on reconciliation with Assad, we find that Turkey presents specific points to the regime related to the safe return of Syrian refugees, the start of a political settlement and the elimination of any upcoming danger on its southern borders from the SDF forces and its sisters led by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)which is classified as a terrorist by the international community.
Informed sources in Moscow state that Turkey is not sticking to staying in Syria, but it also requires Assad to be able to secure the security of the Turkish border with Syria and expel the Kurdish forces, as well as return the Syrian refugees to their country, but the regime is unable to achieve any achievement in light of its loss of initiative. This is true, especially since large and important parts of Syria are under the control of other powers..
Minister Cavusoglu confirmed that his country’s forces will not withdraw at the present time from northern Iraq and Syria, pointing out that a Turkish withdrawal from those areas means ” the cessation of military operations against terrorism and the approach of terrorists to the Turkish borders, which constitutes a threat to Turkish national security .
” COU Y Sh Oglu considered that the vacuum that will occur if the Turkish forces withdraw from northern Syria will be occupied by the organizations that Turkey considers terrorist, but he stressed at the same time that ” Turkey does not aspire to carve out parts of the Syrian lands, and it can only withdraw from northern Syria when Security will be established and full stability will return to those areas. Those statements came by the Turkish minister on the eve of the meeting of defense ministers and intelligence chiefs of Russia, Turkey , Iran and the Syrian regime in Moscow on 4/25/2023.
And from analyzing the position of the regime in light of the deteriorating economic and living situation, including in the areas controlled by the regime, where no one prevents it from achieving a kind of stability, but the people there suffer more than any other region in Syria. The Syrian regime, steeped in corruption, is comfortable with the state of chaos and security and economic failure, as it continues to manufacture captagon and smuggle it to the countries of the region, to the extent that the United States of America has adopted the law to combat drug trafficking “led by Bashar al-Assad” within the 2023 defense budget. Of course, Iran is the one that supports armed sectarian militias and creates chaos in the countries of the region from Iraq to Yemen to Lebanon and Syria, encourages al-Assad to reject any political solution, especially since al-Assad is under its control.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also questioned the value of the impact that the political meeting between the head of the Syrian regime, Bashar al-Assad, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could achieve , and stressed that ” Assad must be held accountable. Meeting al-Assad before or after the elections will not be an advantage for us, perhaps it will be hindrance .” And the minister considered that ” the crisis that has been going on for 11 years will not be solved in this way ,” stressing at the same time the need for a permanent solution to rebuild the country (meaning Syria.
Whatever has been said about the possibility of reconciliation between Assad and Turkey, history records that the most dangerous regime for Turkey’s security is the Assad regime, whose intelligence oversaw the establishment of the Kurdistan Workers Party, and after it the Democratic Union Party and provided them with all kinds of support, including training and weapons, with the aim of fighting the Turkish authorities, and therefore the Syrian regime cannot ensure the security of the border with Turkey, he himself needs someone to protect him..
Therefore, I see that the Turkish leadership is fully aware of the danger of conceding to the regime without achieving real and practical gains. Turkey has the right to work on stabilizing Syria, but that stability is impossible under a regime that killed, displaced and displaced millions of Syrians, destroyed the infrastructure and used the most lethal weapons to kill the Syrians.
