Prussia is ravaged by internal and external political, economic, military developments and accumulations, especially after the start of the Russian military operation on February 24, which coincided with wide packages of Western economic, financial, commercial, industrial, political and even sports and cultural sanctions, amounting to more than 15,000 punishments. Overnight, Russia lost cooperation with all Western countries that were economically important to Russia and those countries simultaneously.
Since 2014, Ukraine has chosen to turn towards Europe and started cooperation with the European Union and NATO and this has become a source of great concern for Russia since Ukraine is the lung from which Russia breathes towards Europe – as Brzezinski, the former US National Security Adviser, said. Moscow began to forcefully raise the issue of Russian national security and faced a serious challenge, which was an attempt to isolate it politically and economically, especially in stopping the sale of Russian oil and gas to Europe as well as depriving Russia of the financial transaction system – SWIFT.
It is not surprising to hear a fanatical Russian nationalist philosopher like Alexander Dugin lamenting the collapse of the Russian Empire represented by the Soviet Union and considering this the greatest crime in history, President Putin repeatedly said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century.
After the 1990s, which was characterized by chaos, terrifying financial inflation and Russia’s weakness to the point that it was almost divided into parts during the Yeltsin era, Putin came to impose his security grip on the country, centralize the state, and began a totalitarian regime par excellence, similar in some aspects to the totalitarianism of the Soviet era.
In Ukraine, an organization led by Yevgeny Prigozhin was born in the name of a private security company called Wagner, which fought in 2014 in the Donbas against Ukraine. Prigozhin now has media, economic and commercial companies and it quickly developed to expand its activities outside Russia, initially in Syria, then in Libya, Central Africa and Sudan and even reached Latin America.
Here we note that the Russian leadership seems to have begun to follow a new method of operating outside Russia’s borders, given the difficulty of direct military intervention with ground forces in various countries.
It began to send Wagner’s mercenaries unofficially and without recognizing them, but in fact, they work under the direct supervision of the highest Russian leadership centres because President Putin mentioned in his condolence on the death of Prigozhin that ” He achieved tangible results for himself and the common cause. ” It is known that Wagner was protecting Russian geopolitical and military interests and cooperated with government companies and others belonging to businessmen (oligarchs) close to the Kremlin and exchanging common benefits as happened in Syria and Africa, where oil, gas and precious metals such as diamonds and gold.
But Prigozhin after the military victories in Ukraine thanks to the high combat efficiency of his mercenaries, became widely popular in the Russian street and among the Russian elites and he began to openly criticize the leadership of the Ministry of Defense and went so far as to criticize President Putin and said last June that a new president would come in Russia Wagner launched a military revolt on June 24, but it failed and it appears that Prigozhin’s loyalists did not support him as he expected. At the time, Putin considered the rebellion a betrayal and the traitors must be punished. Although Putin pardoned Prigozhin after the mediation of Belarusian President Lukashenko, he is known about Putin as not forgiving or forgiving those who betray him or betray him.
It should be mentioned that the Wagner Company is a mercenary company that has committed major crimes in several countries such as Syria and Africa and its fighters work for money and they do not have any national or human values.
The most important question is what is the fate of Wagner’s mercenaries? It seems that it will continue its work and perform its tasks in Ukraine and outside Russia, especially in light of Russia’s wide western province and Russia’s foreign political focus towards Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Indeed, various international sources spoke about Wagner’s role in supporting military coups in 4 African countries and supporting separatist and rebel movements such as the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, Major General Haftar in Libya and Bashar al-Assad in Syria and other regions.
1- The establishment of the Wagner Company, its activities and objectives
-The most prominent tool that currently supports Prigozhin’s political influence is the private military company “Wagner” which has been active since 2013. The “Fontanka” newspaper in St. Petersburg published in 2015 the first report on the activities of this group and “Wagner” has since become the subject of multiple press investigations.
– Mystery surrounds the details of the establishment of Wagner but several sources linked to the Ministry of Defense and the group itself revealed to Russian and Western media that this initiative had been discussed by the General Staff since approximately 2009. The plan to form a group of retired military personnel capable of carrying out covert missions abroad was supported by the then Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army, Nikolai Makarov.
– In 2010, on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, a special presentation for officials of the General Staff was organized by the founder of the world’s first private military company, A.B.
– The leadership of the Ministry of Defense insisted that this group should be private, unofficial and not linked to the government to cover up operations such as the one that took place in the arrest of 3 Russian security figures in Qatar in 2004 for killing a Chechen separatist leader, Sulimkhan Yandarbiyev.
– But the implementation of this plan began only in 2012 with the support of the new chief of the General Staff, General of the Army Valery Gerasimov, who currently holds this position. Prigozhin was chosen in charge of forming the group for two reasons: first. He was considered an activist figure capable of achieving his goals and second because he was close to President Putin and had his trust.
– Over recent years, Prigozhin has persistently denied having any connection with this institution, but rather rejects the fact of its existence and has initiated several judicial processes against journalists, accusing them of spreading lies about him and distorting his image in response to their journalistic investigations, but he appeared on September 25, 2022, carrying hero medals for both Russia and my Republic. Donetsk and Lugasnik peoples. The next day, Prigozhin admitted for the first time, through a statement published by the media office of the “Concorde” group, that he is the founder and financier of the “Wagner” private military company.
– Have always denied any relationship between the state and the Wagner company, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin, after Prigozhin’s rebellion, openly declared that the state provided Wagner with about $2 billion.
2- An introduction to Prigozhin’s personality and his economic, military and media activities (Putin’s cook):
– Despite his current position in the Russian elite, Prigozhin was someone who had risen from the bottom of the social ladder, as his family had no significant connections with the spheres of influence in the Soviet Union.
– Prigozhin was born on June 1, 1961 in the city of Leningrad (currently St. Petersburg) and graduated from a sports school in 1977. Prigozhin then joined the Leningrad Institute of Chemistry and Pharmacy, in which he did not complete his studies, according to his confessions in a press interview.
Instead of focusing on studying, Prigozhin began to engage in criminal activities, which led to his arrest twice, as he generally spent 9 years in prison (from 1979 to 1981 on charges of “theft” and from 1981 to 1989 on charges of “theft,” “armed robbery” “fraud” and “involvement of a minor in criminal activity” ).
– After his release in 1989, Prigozhin launched a wide range of work projects in the field of restaurants and food stores in St. Petersburg, starting with his opening in 1990 of a hot dog network. And in 1998 Prigozhin opened a luxury floating restaurant in the city called ” New Island ” to become a place frequented by members of the financial and political elite.
This restaurant has become a “key to success” for Prigozhin as in 2001 Putin visited him to hold a dinner in the context of his meeting with former French President Jacques Chirac. Later, Putin held his meeting with US President George Bush in the same restaurant in 2002 and the Russian president celebrated his birthday in the same place in 2003.
– Since then, Prigozhin has established close ties with Putin and has become a key planner for the president’s banquets. According to many reports, he prepares menus for official events and even personally caters to President Putin and his high-ranking guests at events, thats is why he has been called “Putin’s chef.”
– Thanks to his contacts in the Kremlin, Prigozhin won many government tenders and private deals in the field of providing catering services in public institutions, schools and military barracks, in addition to large projects in the construction and utilities sector, especially in the facilities of the Ministry of Defense.
– According to multiple press investigations based on official data of government institutions by 2019 Prigozhin’s companies obtained reservations from the Russian authorities with a value exceeding 260 billion rubles ($4.2 billion).
– Prigozhin’s projects are part of the “Concorde” group, which he founded in 1995 and is wholly owned by him.
– During the past years, Prigozhin’s influence relied to a large extent on his relationship with President Putin but after 2014, the businessman became in possession of another powerful weapon, which is the private military company “Wagner” which represents an irregular army.
3- Prigogine’s media empire
– In conjunction with the Wagner Military Company, Prigozhin worked to establish a media empire known for promoting Kremlin policies and criticizing opposition movements, especially on social media platforms.
– This group includes the “Internet Research Agency” which was established in 2013 and is linked by many leaked documents and testimonies of former employees of Prigozhin’s companies, although the latter did not admit that he owns this media organization or other media that are attributed to his group.
– This St. Petersburg-based agency also known as the “fly factory,” specializes in publishing supportive and anti-opposition posts and comments on social media.
– In 2018, the US authorities accused Prigozhin and the Internet Research Agency of interfering in the electoral process in favour of former President Donald Trump, Republican, by spreading misleading information on the Internet, and sanctions were imposed on the Russian businessman and the agency.
In 2021, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation included Prigozhin on the list of most wanted criminals and allocated a reward of $ 250,000 for information that would help in his arrest.
– Many press investigations and leaked documents also confirmed that Prigozhin is behind the activities of the “Federal News Agency” operating since 2014. This agency later expanded into a group known as the “Media Factory” and includes 16 news sites specialized in promoting the Russian government’s foreign policy and defaming Kremlin critics. In 2017, the number of followers of these websites amounted to about 36 million people every month, according to the data of the “ Liveinter.net ” statistical website.
4- Covert and overt services provided by Prigogine companies:
Prigozhin offers security, military and military-industrial services to achieve economic goals:
– Providing advice related to defence and security matters such as drawing up defence strategies
– Assess threats and identify appropriate tools to counter them.
– Training local cadres to fight and develop air defence strategies.
– Studying defensive sites in the country and developing strategies to prepare those sites.
– Determine the resources required and needed to locate these defensive positions.
– Providing combat elements when needed and requested.
– Assisting in setting up an industrial system to collect high-tech armament capabilities.
– Providing consultations in preparing and equipping warehouses.
– Developing a strategy for securing ammunition by manufacturing the necessary quantities
– Providing specialists and engineering elite for military-industrial purposes.
5- Prigozhin’s business outside Russia
– Some experts consider that the rise in influence of figures such as Prigozhin – a man with criminal records, who now plays a major role in determining the policies of the Russian state and practically owns a private army loyal to him is a dangerous indicator that affects the future of stability in Russia, especially in the event of a real division of the ruling elite and the start of power struggle in the country.
– The available data indicates that the Russian leadership tried through the establishment of the “Wagner Group” to form a military tool specialized in carrying out unofficial operations behind the scenes in the interest of Russia, but with the growth of its power and the rise of Prigozhin’s influence, this institution has sometimes become outside the control of the Russian government and its actions cause Sometimes the deterioration of Russia’s relations with its regional partners and lead to more problems in the international arena.
– “He had a rare ability to win the loyalty of his fighters and cut deals with the ruling elite,” said Mark Guillotti, an expert on the Russian secret services and author of a book on Prigozhin. In his way, he was mainly active as a businessman in the places where Wagner was working.
– Prigozhin’s success remained linked to Putin’s sponsorship of him, first through contracts to provide meals to the Ministry of Defense as well as strong relations with Russian military intelligence and the Kremlin, which opened the way for mercenaries to obtain training, weapons, missions in Syria and the African Republic. Central and Libya. The Institute for the Study of War in Washington said that the Russian army has recently begun to establish mercenary groups to replace Wagner in Africa.
– There are media leaks that there are attempts to replace Wagner with a private military group under the supervision of the Ministry of Defense, but Prigozhin’s skill in making deals and relations with local elites and the ability of Prigozhin’s Concorde group to organize propaganda campaigns on social media platforms and portray them as legitimate rulers fighting al-Qaeda and the Islamic State along with Provide ” advisers” to assist in the elections.
Prigozhin’s company provides a full package of services, from smuggling, money laundering and distribution of bonuses to tyrants, but it has become without its main elements, such as Brigadier General Andrei Troshev, who was said to be the executive Director of Wagner and defected to become in Redau. There are leaks that Troshev will become the new leader of Wagner’s company, succeeding Prigozhin.
6- The War in Ukraine and Prigozhin’s Conflict with the Russian Military and Economic Elites
The war in Ukraine provided an opportunity for Prigozhin to operate with more freedom in the political arena and to be able to strengthen his role thanks to the importance of the military “Wagner” and his media group. The businessman has entered into open competition with the Russian Defense Ministry, for which he has drawn harsh criticism in recent weeks.
– Prigozhin was known for his bold positions, as he said that the war in Ukraine was not decided by him, but by the Commander-in-Chief of the Army, i.e. President Putin and called for stopping the military operation.
– Last October, The Washington Post published two reports, citing information from US intelligence that revealed a conversation between Prigozhin and Putin, during which the businessman directly referred to the army’s failures and harshly criticized the Defense Ministry for relying heavily on Wagner without providing the necessary material assistance to its fighters. The newspaper considered that there are increasing personal differences between Prigozhin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. The report pointed out that the escalating influence of figures such as Prigozhin and Kadyrov is causing great concern to some senior Russian security and defence officials and politicians.
7- Why did Prigozhin ‘s rebellion fail on June 24, 2023?
– Prigozhin’s rebellion was an open revolt against Putin, though the Russian president’s first public reaction was a stern warning, when he declared, without mentioning Prigozhin’s name that those who had prepared the revolt had “betrayed Russia”. And in Putin’s lexicon, the penalty for treason is the death sentence!
– The rebellion left contradictory reactions in Russian society, many expected the worst and some are still apprehensive about the future in light of the destabilization of the country, which is fighting a battle on the external fronts.
– The name of businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin has increasingly surfaced when covering the political situation inside Russia or developments in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
– During the past years, Prigozhin’s influence relied to a large extent on his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but after 2014, the businessman became in possession of another powerful weapon, which is the private military company “Wagner”, which represents an irregular army.
– The Belarusian president led mediation, with the approval of President Putin, between the Kremlin and the leader of the rebellion, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and under an agreement, the Wagner leader was transferred to Belarus, the charge of treason was dropped from him, his legal prosecution was stopped by Moscow, and his confiscated funds were returned to him.
However, the Russian TASS agency reported news that “the criminal case against Prigozhin has not been stopped and the investigation is continuing.” This means that Prigozhin’s fate has not yet been decided. Observers wondered whether Prigozhin would return to the Ukrainian front, and this is unlikely, after his rebellion. Or will he leave Belarus to a foreign country in Africa, for example, or will he be disposed of somehow?
– Wagner’s rebellion shook Russian society for 24 hours, but it ended on the evening of June 24 with an agreement providing for Prigozhin’s departure to Belarus. President Putin gave Wagner fighters the choice between joining Prigozhin in Belarus, joining the regular Russian army, or leaving Wagner and returning to civilian life.
8- Prigozhin was killed after his private plane crashed on August 23
Prigozhin before the plane crash:
– Wagner fighters played a decisive role in the victories achieved by the Russian army on the Ukrainian front, especially in the city of Bakhmut (Artyomivsk) and gained wide popularity among Russians enthusiastic about the Russian military operation in Ukraine.
– President Putin announced last June that the state had provided $2 billion to Wagner for weapons and other things.
– Prigozhin’s rebellion on June 24 was a very remarkable event because it was directed against the leadership of the Russian army. Prigozhin was videotaped even to the person of President Putin and said that A new president is coming to Russia. President Putin considered Prigozhin’s rebellion a betrayal and a stab in the back by Wagner’s leaders, and they must be held accountable.
– Although Prigozhin was exempted from the charges against him and his money was returned to him, he moved between Moscow and St. Petersburg, where he attended the Kremlin in late June with Wagner leaders and pictures appeared of him with African leaders in St. Petersburg on the sidelines of the Russia-Africa Summit on July -27and July 28. After that he did not appear in any video until a few days ago in Africa, where he said, “We came here to give freedom to Africa.”
– It is worth noting that General Surovikin, known as the scorched-earth theorist who was appointed by the President as commander of the military operation in Ukraine and known for his strong ties with Prigozhin, has expressed sympathy for Prigozhin’s rebellion. Therefore, he was placed under house arrest two months ago, until he was dismissed two days ago, and his fate is not known now.
– Since the end of his 24-hour rebellion in Russia, Prigozhin has only communicated with the world via voice messages broadcast on Telegram, unlike when he was in Ukraine when his favourite medium of media communication was video recordings. He said, “We work! The temperature is +50, just like we like it. The Wagner Group is carrying out a reconnaissance mission, and this enhances Russia’s greatness on all continents and guarantees more freedom for Africa.”
– The issue of Prigozhin’s murder has been surrounded by great ambiguity from the Russian media and the official authorities and this raises many questions, the most important of which is who is behind the accident.
– The Russian Aviation Authority confirmed the presence of Prigozhin. And the second man in the “Wagner” group, Dmitry Utkin, is on board. The Russian Federal Agency for Air Transport opened an investigation into the plane crash, while the Russian Investigation Committee, for its part opened a criminal investigation into the accident.
– The Wagner Group has not yet officially confirmed Prigozhin’s death but announced that his phone had been found near the bodies. Wagner’s leadership may issue an official statement about the incident.
Plane crash scenarios and accident outcomes:
– Obviously, the plane broke apart in the air and fell to the ground, scattering into pieces. The reason could be either a technical defect in the plane, the pilot’s violation of flight rules or the plane being detonated from inside the air before it fell. Or a surface-to-air missile that hit it intentionally or by mistake, The Telegram website affiliated with the Wagner Group published that the plane was shot down by air defense, and this news was not confirmed, but it was widely reported by Western media. The Russian military website, Ribar, confirmed that the first inspection of the wreckage of Prigozhin’s plane did not indicate the presence of traces of targeting.
Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, is killed
– By announcing the death of the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on August 23, 2023, as a result of the crash of his private plane, his name joins the list of Russians who were close to the circle of President Vladimir Putin and were killed strangely since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
– On the evening of Wednesday, August 23, 2023 AD, an Embraer private plane registered in the name of Yevgeny Prigozhin – founder and owner of the Wagner Military Company – crashed 160 kilometres north of Moscow. On board the plane heading from Moscow to St. Petersburg were 10 people, including 3 flight crew and 7 of Wagner’s leaders, including Yevgeny Prigozhin and the actual military commander of Wagner, General Dmitry Utkin.
– There were conflicting reports at first about the presence of Prigozhin among the dead, but the official sources of the Civil Aviation Authority reported directly that Prigozhin’s name was among the people on the plane. But the observers wondered a lot, Did Prigozhin board the plane, or enter his name in the passenger list for camouflage, as another private plane belonging to Mr. Prigozhin was flying near Moscow and landed at one of its airports?
– Hours after confirming the plane crash and finding 10 bodies, it was confirmed that Prigozhin and Utkin were killed, and this was confirmed by Russian official media such as RT. Which announced that one of the parts of the plane that crashed in the Tver district north of Moscow, with the founder of the “Wagner” group Yevgeny Prigozhin on board, was found about two kilometres from the crash site. This was also confirmed by the state-run Russia 24 news channel.
Feedback about the murder of Prigogine:
– Russian President Vladimir Putin consoled the families of the victims of Prigozhin’s death as a result of an crash aircraft:
– Putin emphasized that Prigozhin was a man with a difficult fate, but he was talented
– And that “Wagner” contributed effectively to the fight against Nazism in Ukraine, and we will never forget this
– He said that the investigation committee has started its investigation into the plane crash, and we will complete it by the end
– Putin declared: I have known Prigozhin for a very long time, since the beginning of the nineties, he made mistakes, but he achieved tangible results for himself and the common cause.
– And that Prigozhin was a talented businessman who not only worked in our country but also worked outside the borders of our country, in Africa in particular and achieved results.
– Kremlin spokesman: Western claims that the possibility that the Kremlin was behind the killing of Prigozhin is an absolute lie, and about the future of “Wagner”: This structure does not exist by law. There is a group and I cannot say anything about its future
– Lavrov on Prigozhin’s plane crash: Investigations are continuing, and I call for focusing on facts, not Western media reports
– US President Joe B. Eden: He accused Putin of Prigozhin’s death and said, “I don’t know exactly, but such an accident cannot happen without Putin’s knowledge.”
– Official and n American and n:
– An explosion inside Prigozhin’s plane is the main hypothesis, and it may have been caused by a bomb
– The United States denied any involvement whatsoever in Prigozhin’s plane crash
– not surprising that the plane of the commander of Wagner fell because Prigozhin’s rebellion endangered him
– Prigozhin’s murder will have repercussions throughout Wagner’s presence in the world
– Pentagon spokesman: We confirm that Prigozhin was killed in his plane crash, but there is no likely hypothesis about the cause of the crash
– We will continue to closely monitor Wagner’s forces, and no one underestimates their fighting capabilities
– Wagner no longer has a major role on the battlefield in Ukraine, and we will monitor the repercussions of her work in Africa
– British Ministry of Defense: The end of Prigozhin will certainly have a profound impact on the stability of the Wagner Group.
– Chechen President Ramzan Qadirov comments on Prigozhin’s death :
– Prigozhin made a great contribution to the special military operation, and this credit cannot be taken away from him. His death is a great loss for the entire country. I extend my sincere condolences to the family and friends of Yevgeny Viktorovich .”
– Kadyrov added: Recently, he (Prigozhin) either did not see or did not want to see the full picture of what was happening in the country. I have asked him to give up personal ambitions in favour of matters of supreme national importance. And that everything else could be decided at a later time, but it was so, with his iron character and his desire to achieve his goal here and now .”
– A Russian expert considers Prigozhin a national hero and that the Russians truly love him. The evidence is that thousands of Russians put roses in many Russian cities in places dedicated to the memory of Prigozhin and Utkin.
– Head of the Political Consulting Center, Yevgeny Minchenko: The first impression is that the Russian security services are working well, the second is that the competitors are fighting in Russia, and the third is revenge by Prigozhin’s enemies, for example, the Ukrainians. It is believed that the causes of the accident and Prigozhin’s death will never be known.
– Director of the Institute of Political Studies Sergey Markov: He believes that the strongest possibility is that the Ukrainian intelligence service is responsible for the killing of Prigozhin and excludes the responsibility of the Russian Ministry of Defense for the accident
– Dmitry Severyukov – blogger on Telegram: We can think of the responsibility of the various global intelligence services, American and British, for sowing chaos and despair in the hearts of Russians, but we cannot ignore the delicate political situation in Russia. This incident will not add stability or social solidarity, knowing that death may unite people and push them to rapprochement
– Russian journalist Kirill Shulika: Prigozhin was one of the people who had the most enemies and he knew that this would end one day, but he liked the media appearances.
Experts on the murder of Prigozhin and the leaders of Wagner:
– Russian experts loyal to the Russian authorities believe that the Ukrainian intelligence service is behind the incident, and they linked it to the occasion of Ukraine’s Independence Day on August 24, 2023.
February 24, 2022, was the day the military operation began, and Prigozhin’s rebellion took place on that day, i.e. June 24. June 2023. Politician and analyst Sergei Markov said that Ukraine would be very happy about Prigozhin’s death. Remarkably, many political and military analysts specialized in Russian and Ukrainian affairs talked about the possibility of something big happening on August 24, exactly two months after Prigozhin’s rebellion.
– So far, no official position has been issued by the Kremlin or any official military or security body on the causes of the accident.
– It seems that Prigozhin exaggerated his capabilities, taking advantage of his strong relations with the Kremlin and establishing a strong military organization that has served the Russian state since 2014 in Ukraine, Africa and the Middle East.
– The killing of Prigozhin is considered a gain for the Ukrainian side as the Wagner fighters fought on the Ukrainian front with great professionalism.
– Prigozhin gained great popularity among the Russians who were enthusiastic about the war in Ukraine, so the death of him and his right-hand man, General Utkin, could be a consequence of this incident.
– Russian experts believe that the killing of Prigozhin is not in the interest of the Russian leadership, because his death will give him more moral importance than his survival and continuing his activities in Africa far from Russia. Nevertheless, the punishment of Prigozhin for his rebellion and betrayal of the Russian leadership cannot be excluded.
9- What is the fate of the Wagner Group after the departure of Prigozhin and his military assistant Utkin?
– Yevgeny B. Rygozhin, founder and commander of the Russian private military company “Wagner” was asked in May 2023 if he was afraid of death. The man with a strong heart replied And who instantly established an empire of legitimate and illegitimate institutions in the world: “You don’t have to look back when you die, we all die at some point .”
– Thus, a full day after the death of Prigozhin and his companions, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his condolences to the families of the victims of the plane crash in which the founder of the Wagner Group was on board, in the Russian province of Tver.
Scenarios of Wagner’s fate after Prigogine !
– The first scenario, which is the strongest: is the emergence of a new leadership for these militias from among the ranks of the middle leadership to take over their leadership and complete their path, with public funding from the Russian state and dozens of commercial companies left by Prigozhin in Russia and abroad. Several African countries, Syria and others, and this scenario is very likely because Russia is in a state of constant war with Ukraine and the West and it needs this supportive military force, whose members have great combat experience gained in the field, just as Moscow needs Wagner’s forces and their widespread in Africa to support its competition there. Western powers, especially France.
– Second scenario: The inclusion of Wagner elements who are still on Russian soil into the Russian army according to the plan that was not approved by Prigozhin and his staff before their rebellion last June. As for the Wagner elements deployed on the lands of Belarus, they may have joined the Belarusian army, to be a support and shock force in the face of any invasion. to Belarusian territory by opposition forces being trained in neighbouring countries, particularly in Poland and the Baltic states, and logistical support provided by the Russian government to elements deployed in Africa
– The third scenario, which is the weakest: legally dissolving the Wagner Company, liquidating its property and weapons and sending its members to their homes or leaving them to their fate. They may turn into a source of unrest and a few, similar to what happened with the Arab fighters who returned from Afghanistan after the end of the jihad there, to disturb the rulers of the countries from which they launched and the entire world.
– Observers expect that in the coming times, we may witness surprises about Prigozhin’s murder.
