Abstracts:
Another serious concern with the trade in commodities from LDCs, and one which is very relevant to the case of East African coffee, is the issue of unfavorable terms of trade and commodity price fluctuations. During the period between 1945 and 1980, commodity prices were in general decline on the world market. Prices fluctuated and in some instances, there was some recovery through the 1960s. This was often as a result of restrictive measures such as cartels and quotas being implemented in attempts to stabilize the prices of various commodities. An example of this is the International Coffee Agreement (ICA) and its subsequent agreements during the 1960s. This agreement set export quotas for each country to try and raise coffee prices on the world market. It also involved transactions with buffer stocks which would be used in the event of price decline. One of the major concerns with development in recent decades is the importance of sustainability. Sustainable development can be defined as “development which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. Unfortunately, an excessive reliance on income from commodities can often be at the expense of the environment and future income, leading to the promotion of “boom and bust” economies in LEDCs. This term refers to an economic cycle characterized by a period of significant increase in commodities prices and income, leading to increased production and overexploitation of the natural resources in question. This results in a reduction of future incomes as a result of declining prices and damaged environment. It is feared that countries such as Uganda, relying heavily on coffee exports, could fall into this economic trap despite recent agreements in the World Trade Organization to raise coffee prices through an international quota system. Making money from commodities is not necessarily a route to success and development. There is no denying that income generated from exports of commodities can sometimes represent a very significant percentage of a country’s income. Indeed, the four East African countries under discussion here all belong in the category of LDCs (less developed countries) with a significant reliance on income from primary products. However, as you will see from your studies of economics and in particular from the case study of these countries, income from primary products does not guarantee development.
Keywords:
Instability, Ethnic conflicts, Failed state, Debt-burden, Leadership succession, and Governance
Introduction:
East Africa’s myriad troubles, whether economic, political, or humanitarian, are well known throughout the world. Not so well known are the deeper forces behind these troubles, forces which are both laying waste to the present and which bode ill for the future. The purpose of this paper is to analyze these forces, to suggest that their roots are both historical and ecological, and to indicate that prospects for East Africa in the 1980s are far from bright. Most social scientists have seen the problems of East Africa as purely political or economic. On the one hand, there is an extensive colonial literature, much of which is very critical of the European role in Africa, and which lays many of Africa’s current problems on its colonial heritage. On the other hand, many economists and political scientists have seen Africa’s current problems in terms of political and economic development. Influential development theories, such as modernization, dependency, and the like have been used to explain why Africa’s leaders have made certain choices, and why these choices have had negative consequences for development since independence. These approaches, while not ignoring culture, have generally seen African culture and society as having been shaped by external factors.
For instance, African heads of state, who are of course familiar with the concept of the “failed” state, have a clear incentive to avoid association with the label and may well change elements of their foreign or domestic policy in an effort to do so. This can even be detrimental to the longer-term interests of the country. In Zambia, Kenya, and Tanzania, leaders paid back loans which had been taken by predecessors, under the assumption that being seen to service the debt would enhance credibility and enable access to further credit. In actual fact, the terms on which the credit was originally negotiated were often unfavorable and the resources drained from the country by servicing debts were sorely needed for investment. Terms such as “failed state” and “debt-burden,” “successor” and “failed president” are used in the wider literature. They are often too simplistic to do justice to the complexities and nuances of the factors involved in the making of public policy decisions. However, their continuing use in a range of publications on Africa, much of it targeted at policymakers, serves not only to reinforce negative images of Africa and its leadership, but also to influence behavior.
However, recent historians and historical ecologists are presenting a very different picture of East Africa’s past and present. By pointing out Africa’s vast environmental diversity, and by tracing the use of different ecological zones by Africans and their predecessors, they are providing a new understanding of demographic patterns, settlement, social organization, and culture change in various parts of Africa. This literature does not deny that there have been significant political and economic changes in the modern period, but it sees many present problems as having been shaped by older and deeper processes of change. Among the external factors impinging on East Africa, no consensus exists, but it is agreed that the region’s integration into the global economy has heavily influenced Africa’s lands and peoples. But it is also believed that internal and external factors are not easily separated. Both have been articulated in recent research into Africa’s ecological history, particularly in Paul Lane’s White Nile project, and Peter Robert’s comparative work in East Africa. This paper, drawing from this recent research, will examine the historical and ecological roots of East Africa’s troubles.
1. Political Instability
East Africa has undoubtedly encountered substantial political irritation and confronted a multitude of challenges throughout its extensive and diverse history (Kassegn & Endris, 2021). The underlying reasons behind this considerable resentment can undoubtedly be attributed to the persistent failure of various political, social, and economic policies that have persistently plagued the region. These deeply ingrained and systemic failures serve as a clear reflection of the significant absence of coherent governance, contributing to an enduring lack of effective collaboration among diverse rulers who, tragically, have been unable to unite towards the realization of a shared vision. Consequently, civil unrest has regrettably become more pronounced, progressively permeating every facet of society as the populace becomes increasingly disheartened and infuriated by the continued presence of woefully inadequate leadership. The collective frustration festers, yearning for an era of genuine progress and transformative change that is long overdue, thereby necessitating a renewed commitment and ardent pursuit of a better future for East Africa.
A vivid example of such unrest occurred in Kenya during the period of 1992-93. Government decisions during this time antagonized various tribes within the country, resulting in the emergence of underground tribal militias (Bassett, 2020). These militias sought to promote and safeguard their own tribal interests, leading to violent confrontations with government security forces. The consequences of an unstable government are abundantly clear, as frequent changes in leadership and policies generate unpredictable outcomes and hinder East Africa’s progress. According to “The Modernization of Tradition,” it is evident that since gaining independence in 1963, no Kenyan government has successfully implemented a comprehensive land reform program. Each new regime has concentrated on overturning the decisions of its predecessor, relegating land reform to a low priority. This unfortunate situation severely disadvantages the Kenyan people, depriving them of the positive transformation that a well-executed land reform program can bring.
Nevertheless, amidst these challenges, there is a glimmer of hope for the future of East Africa. The African Union formation of the Peace and Security Commission (PSC) has shown promising signs of accountability and justice (Khadiagala2023). The PSC possesses the potential to put an end to the prevailing culture of impunity that has long plagued the leaders of the region (Kuwali2022). This development brings renewed optimism that East Africa may finally move towards a more just and equitable society (Chandola & Chhabra). By addressing the underlying issues of political, social, and economic failures and working towards a more cohesive and accountable leadership, East Africa can overcome its current challenges. It is through these efforts that the region can foster stability, peace, and prosperity for its people.
1.1. Government Corruption
Governments in East Africa have had a reputation of being corrupt (Nebo2023). Citizens do not trust public officials and believe that the greatest threat to security and development is the governments themselves (Githuku2021). The prevalence of government corruption is best highlighted by the fact that both Mobutu of Zaire and Moi of Kenya each embezzled an estimated $4 billion US from their nation’s treasuries. The Kenyan case is particularly disturbing since $1 billion of that is estimated to be sitting in private accounts of western banks (Omar, 2020). The were public officials have used state funds to benefit themselves rather than invest in the nation’s future is all too common. Mobutu used 47% of Zaire’s national budget to repay foreign debts. He saw this as a way of legitimizing future rule to be able to personally use the remaining 53% of the budget (Abdulai, 2023).
This better explains why 2/3 of Zaire’s population still lacks proper nourishment. This is quite typical of the self-interest most leaders have displayed, often ignoring the needs of the country and placing priority on personal wealth and power (Kanji & Messick, 2020). An effective example of solving the needs of the country can be seen in the failed execution of Structural Adjustment Programs. These had been implemented throughout the 80’s to encourage development in numerous East African countries. However, these programs were quickly abandoned since government leaders pocketed the money in international loans and refused to continue using the funds to benefit the country. Such was the case in Tanzania where 90% of the 2.5 billion USD in loans had disappeared from the country (MUKANI, 2021). Such examples have left the citizens with a reluctance to pay taxes to this day since they feel the money will be misappropriated. This is the classic case of a vicious-circular pattern created by corruption since the tax revenue is arguably the single most important factor to decrease corruption and build development.
1.2. Ethnic Tensions
Ethnic tensions within East African countries pose a real threat to stability and development (Büscher, 2020). Africans were ruled by an ethnic-based system during the colonial period. Independence brought about the possibility of unified nationhood for the first time, but there was uncertainty about whether the new political structures would be strong enough to withstand the forces pulling Africa’s ethnic groups back into competition with one another (Oucho, 2021). The OAU was founded on the principle of state sovereignty and the inviolability of borders, essentially freezing the colonial political configuration in place. As a result, the early years of independence witnessed the swift suppression of dissenting views or movements, followed by varying efforts to build strong nations out of the fragile and artificial colonial constructs (Rwandarugali & Ngetar2021). In some cases this process involved the homogenization of ethnic identities into a single national identity. But often it entailed the ruthless subordination of ethnic interests to those of ruling elites and/or the elite ethnicity, and this in turn led to violent conflict in the post-Cold War era (Wepundi & Sharamo, 2021). High profile conflicts include those in Rwanda, Burundi, the DRC, and Kenya.
1.3. Power Struggles
In Uganda, the mere fact of leaders clinging to positions of power for extended periods has been enough to incite conflict (Makara2020). Idi Amin’s eight-year reign of terror and economic drain ended in 1979 with a Tanzanian invasion. This led to an era of violent and unstable transition periods between differing and fluid coalition governments (Dhizaala). The situation has hopefully changed for the better with the election of current president Yoweri Museveni who, despite having altered and possibly abolished presidential term limits in both 2003 and 2005, has led the country into an era of relative peace and prosperity (Bakwesegha, 2021). However, the issue of Museveni staying in power for life has been an issue of great contention and the end of his rule may incite more conflict in Uganda.
Sudan has suffered from a chronic civil war since it gained independence in 1956. The first civil war, between the primarily Muslim north and the Animist and Christian south, ended in 1972 with the Addis Ababa agreement and a promise of regional autonomy for the south (Tønnessen, 2023). This promise was never fulfilled as resources from the south were continually and increasingly siphoned to fund development in the north. When the south attempted to secede in 1983, the north imposed martial law and fighting resumed (Essoh2021). The National Islamic Front coup of 1989 was a turning point for the worse as the government sought to quash rebels by burning villages and destroying the means of survival for the rural populace (Aleu, 2020). The second civil war is said to have officially ended in 2002. With the signing of a peace agreement in Machakos, Kenya, and lasting until the present, an era of autonomy is again promised for the south, culminating in a potential referendum in 2011 to establish the south’s desire for independence (Mihatsch, 2021). This rather hopeful agreement is constantly threatened by the situation in western Darfur, where an insurgency has been brutally suppressed by the government.
Economic hardship and social distress are not the only reasons for political conflict in East Africa. An equally challenging and complex issue arises from the power struggles inherent in the transition of government. As governmental systems and states undergo change, a tumultuous and often violent competition for control of states and their vast resources ensues (Moshtari & Safarpour, 2024). The power struggles that ensnare the region have reached levels of severity that are unfathomable. In countries such as Uganda and Sudan, these conflicts have escalated into full-scale civil war, wreaking havoc upon the lives of countless individuals. Sudan, in particular, has been ravaged by an all-out civil war that has left a trail of destruction in its wake (Chepkwony, 2022). Uganda, on the other hand, has faced an incessant series of rebellions and peripheral conflicts that have plagued the nation. These ongoing power struggles have infiltrated every aspect of Ugandan society, leaving a deep and lasting impact on its people.
The battle for control over states and resources creates a breeding ground for unrest and instability. It fuels animosity, fosters divisions, and threatens the very fabric of society. Governments rise and fall, but the persistent power struggles that grip East Africa continue to cause profound suffering and despair. It is imperative for regional and global actors to recognize the complexity and gravity of these power struggles. Only through concerted efforts and a deep understanding of the underlying causes can sustainable peace and stability be achieved. East Africa, with its rich cultural heritage and immense potential, deserves a future free from the shackles of political conflict and the continuous struggle for power.
2. Economic Challenges
Tentative conclusions about the economic and political future of the countries of East Africa are tinged with pessimism (Minde2020). Both Kenya and Tanzania compare favourably with many other African countries. But the break-up of the EAC left Kenya in a position of dominance. It can survive by expanding non-traditional exports to Europe. Tanzania economy largely rests on uncertain foreign aid (Barya, 2021). Both countries share common problems of agriculture and industry, and discriminative trade agreements with MEDCs, TAR changes and is primarily lead by ambitious people with sometimes impractical or unrealistic ideas (Amadi2023). High population growth in Uganda and ethnic conflict and polarisation in Burundi and Rwanda suggest that more conflict lies ahead for those poor countries (Akello & Defraigne). Economic and political stability in the near future for East Africa does not seem an attainable goal.
In Uganda, 50% of its population is below the poverty line, and 68% of the urban population is unemployed. Any rise in prices is devastating to these people (Ssennono et al.2021). A devaluation increases the price of imported goods (van et al.2021). When the 1972/78 Ugandan regime expelled the Asian community and agriculturists, Uganda lost the majority of its skilled and professional workers (Twinomuhangi et al.2021). This has led to declines in coffee and tea yield, and the educated Asians have either reinvested in other East African countries, or elsewhere. They argue that they have been more successful than their African counterparts, and that they have fallen victim to the “Africanization of African jobs”(Muttamba et al.2020). They also say they have done more for the economy than some of the politicians have.
2.1. High Unemployment Rates
A major economic issue that has plagued East Africa is high unemployment. Despite high economic growth rates, the associated rise in employment has been minimal, with unemployment remaining high and in some cases rising (Yeboah & Jayne, 2020). Core rates of unemployment, when compared to other developing areas, are much higher than the average at 15.9 per cent in 2005 compared with 6.0 per cent in South Asia and 7.7 per cent in the rest of the Sub-Saharan region (Mustafa, 2021). Over half the workforce in some countries, such as Kenya and Uganda, have been unable to find stable jobs. Youth unemployment has been particularly high in urban areas (Renzaho2020). In Tanzania and Uganda, youth unemployment was estimated at 21 per cent and 19.8 per cent respectively. This relative surplus of unutilised labour has had the effect of depressing wage rates (Montenegro & Patrinos, 2023). Deteriorating terms and conditions of work has led to what is referred to as “jobless growth” and underemployment. Much of the labour force is engaged in informal sector work, often in a bid simply to survive (Sackeyfio & Kaba2022). This has resulted in a situation where despite gains in income and poverty reduction in real terms, many East Africans have found their standard of living and quality of life has actually worsened.
2.2. Inflation and Rising Prices
The reason that both Kenya and Tanzania have experienced inflation in the past decade is due to their fiscal policies and the fact that they are developing countries (Saungweme & Odhiambo2021). Both countries run a budget deficit, and so they print money to finance debt. Printing money causes inflation (Odongo et al., 2022). Developing countries often suffer from imported inflation if they are dependent on imported goods (Shibanda, 2020). This is because an increase in the price of imports will raise the cost of living and the cost of production within the country (Green & Murinde). The final reason is that developing countries often experience rapid economic growth, which creates increased demand. Increased demand creates demand-pull inflation.
Inflation is the sustained increase in the general level of prices (Mkai & Aikaeli, 2020). It is measured in two ways: the GDP deflator and the Consumer Price Index (Sanga et al.2022). In 2008 and 2009, Tanzania and Kenya had inflation rates of about 7-8%. The problem with inflation is that it has detrimental effects in the long run and can create uncertainty about the future (Sanga et al.2023). When there is inflation, people will expect price increases, and it will adversely affect those with fixed incomes (Shibanda, 2020). In the case of hyperinflation, money becomes worthless, and barter economies are formed, creating an inefficient allocation of resources and loss of real output.
2.3. Lack of Infrastructure Investment
Presumably because of the perceived potential economic and social returns in education and health, the provision of motorable roads has attracted the lion’s share of investment directed at infrastructure development in East Africa (Mwendapole & Zhihong, 2020). Most of the region’s clearance and maintenance of roads have been to serve the needs of trade with the outside world and the long distance transports of goods and services between the hinterland and the ports. Feeder and access roads leading to rural communities and market centres have been ignored, often leaving rural inhabitants isolated from urban centres and mission or government services. Transport services to the rural areas are often so costly that the price of getting goods and services to the market becomes prohibitive, reducing the volume of trade and improving scarcity of essential commodities for rural consumers (ESCAP, 2022). In the five East African countries, malaria endemic control is heavily reliant on the use of residual insecticides. Power and all-weather roads are essential for the national land scaling operations (Rodrigue, 2020). The Malaria Eradication Centre of the World Health Organisation recommends that the reconnaissance phase of these operations should be completed within an area of 30 miles radius of at least 80% of isolated settlements. The same holds true for the provision of a variety of other health and agricultural services (Ansah et al., 2020). It has been observed that the rural sector is now growing in importance as a consumer of goods and services from urban centres. This is a result of increasing population and the decline in self-sufficiency of food and other commodities.
3. Environmental Concerns
There is a significantly alarming and distressingly high rate of deforestation in the beautiful region of East Africa (Njora & Yılmaz2022). The primary causes behind this devastating issue revolve predominantly around over-farming and over-grazing (Sze et al., 2022). The relentless removal of precious trees and vital vegetation to make room for agricultural purposes has undeniably resulted in extensive soil degradation. Tragically, as a consequence, the once flourishing and dense forests that were once a haven for the region’s remarkable and diverse wildlife are now teetering on the verge of destruction (Kweyu et al., 2020). It is with great concern that experts estimate that, if the current rate of deforestation persists, Kenya will find itself stripped of its invaluable indigenous forests within a saddening span of merely 15 years (Habel et al.2023). Regrettably, the same grim fate is bound to befall the other equally treasured East African nations if urgent action is not taken swiftly and effectively (Alden Wily, 2021).
Water scarcity is a very real problem in East Africa. Many sub-Saharan countries have water stress or water scarcity conditions. The population in these countries is currently 218 million, and is expected to rise to about 340 million by 2025 (Tramberend et al.2021). This would cause a drastic decline in per capita water availability and is an indicator of the many difficulties to come. It is expected that by 2025, as many as 17 countries will be facing water shortages. Much of the region’s water comes from surface water and with the close of the new millennium, the specter of water-related ecological impacts looms (Mutschinski & Coles, 2021). Pattern and intensity of rainfall in the region have changed, and droughts have become more frequent. This can partly be attributed to climate change, but is also due to deforestation and the degradation of land. A prediction by the International Water Management Institute suggested that by 2025, as many as 75 to 250 million people in Africa will be living in areas of high water stress (Tramberend et al., 2020). This would be concurrent with a 50% reduction in the amount of water available per capita (Al-Gamal, 2021). Water scarcity in East Africa would have an especially grave impact as it has been posited that the next war in Africa will be fought over water. Waterborne diseases also result from the scarcity of water and are a serious problem in Africa (Musie & Gonfa, 2023). It is estimated that there are over 5 million cases of water-related diseases in Africa each year, and many of these are fatal.
3.1. Deforestation and Land Degradation
Deforestation and land degradation rank among the most acute environmental problems in East Africa. The Lake Victoria basin has lost its forest cover almost entirely; less than 4 percent remains. Mount Kilimanjaro area and the Mau forest complex are other areas where the loss of forest cover is particularly marked (Kajuni et al.). It has been estimated that about half of the region’s forest cover has been lost. The primary causes of deforestation are subsistence-driven, often involving an element of commercial activity (Katusiime et al., 2023). This is reflected in the fact that agriculture is the main driver of deforestation, as seen in the large scale conversion of forest land to agricultural purposes and the over-expansion of agricultural activities, most frequently by small farmers utilizing low-level technologies (Onyango et al.2021). Immigration of people from other parts of the country or from other countries in East Africa, particularly in search of available land, is another factor contributing to deforestation. This is most clearly seen in Tanzania, where large numbers of people have been drawn to the Western and Southern Highlands regions by government policies aimed at filling the under-utilized land (Nassali et al.2020). A further major cause of deforestation is cutting of trees for fuelwood and timber. This is done at unsustainable levels, often illegally, with significant timber being transported to other urban areas within and outside the country (Liu et al., 2022). The demand for fuelwood is driven by the high levels of energy poverty in rural areas and the continuing use of wood as the main source of energy for cooking. The effect of deforestation has been greatly amplified by population growth, due to the resultant increase in demand for forest resources.
Deforestation and land degradation pose significant challenges in the East African region, demanding urgent attention. In recent years, the Lake Victoria basin has witnessed a drastic loss of forest cover, leaving less than a mere 4 percent remaining. Other critical areas, such as the Mount Kilimanjaro region and the Mau forest complex, have also experienced alarming forest depletion (Mugo et al.2020). It is distressing to note that roughly half of the forest cover in this region has already been lost, highlighting an urgent need for action (Kajuni et al.). Among the primary catalysts fueling deforestation are subsistence-driven activities, often intertwined with commercial pursuits. Agriculture, being the predominant driver, contributes substantially to deforestation, evident in the extensive conversion of forested land for agricultural purposes and the uncontrolled expansion of farming practices, predominantly undertaken by small-scale farmers utilizing primitive technologies (Katusiime et al., 2023). The influx of migrants from other regions within the country or neighboring countries in East Africa is a key factor exacerbating deforestation, particularly driven by the search for available land (Ngodhe, 2021). This phenomenon is particularly conspicuous in Tanzania, where the government’s land utilization policies have attracted a significant influx of people to the Western and Southern Highlands regions, resulting in increased deforestation rates. Furthermore, the unsustainable felling of trees for fuelwood and timber production constitutes another major cause of deforestation (Liu et al., 2022). Regrettably, this practice often occurs at illegal and unsustainable levels, with a considerable portion of the harvested timber being transported to urban areas both within and outside the country (Onyango et al.2021). The demand for fuelwood is driven by rampant energy poverty in rural areas, where wood remains the primary source of cooking fuel. The adverse impacts of deforestation are further amplified by population growth, leading to an ever-increasing demand for forest resources.
3.2. Water Scarcity
Step one towards solving water scarcity is ensuring there is enough water to meet the needs of the population (Leal et al.2022). This involves careful management of water usage, and sometimes making hard decisions to limit the population in areas that do not have enough water (Molden, 2020). In the cities, rapidly increasing populations mean there is a higher demand for water. This is often met by draining underground water sources. This is a temporary solution, that ultimately results in the water source drying up (Mussa & Mjemah, 2023). This was the case for the city of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, who at the turn of the century saw its main water source, the Ruvu river, drastically reduce its flow and Mukuranga aquifer deplete (World Bank, 2005).
Fresh water is the most essential element to human survival, and is vital for the survival of all other species (Mishra2023). It is estimated that by 2025, as much as two-thirds of the world’s population will be living in countries that face chronic freshwater shortages (Postel, 2000). Many East African countries fit into this category. The growing populations mean the demand for water is increasing, and in many places surpassing the supply (Padder & Bashir2023). Water usage at an unsustainable level is already prevalent in some areas. This is often the result of poorly managed irrigation by farmers who do not have the knowledge to use water efficiently. This can lead to water wastage and soil degradation (Mahato et al., 2022). Unlike many other environmental issues, water scarcity is very easily definable (Hirwa et al.2022). The issue concerns how much freshwater is available, and whether there is enough to meet the demands of water users, be they human, plants or animals (Chitonge, 2020). It is a simple comparison of the amount of water that is available with the amount of water that is needed (Chappell, 1997).
3.3. Climate Change Impact
A significant proportion of the population in East Africa is located in the highlands where substantially reduced temperatures would adversely affect agriculture (Marinus et al.2022). This would result in lower crop yields and potential food scarcity for the affected regions. However, despite the scarceness of evidence, it is widely accepted amongst scientists and researchers that there is a high probability of increased temperatures across the region in the coming years (Kitavi et al.2020). The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report for Africa states that by 2020, there is likely to be an increase in the frequency of both drought and intense rain events in East Africa (Haile et al.2020). These climatic changes can have severe implications for the region. The increased frequency of droughts would lead to water scarcity, negatively impacting agricultural production and exacerbating food insecurity (Chang’a et al.2020). On the other hand, intense rain events may result in flash floods, displacing communities and causing damage to infrastructure.
These trends are likely to have cascading effects on the environment and livelihoods in East Africa. Increased droughts and desertification in some regions may lead to the displacement of communities, loss of biodiversity, and degradation of land. This, in turn, can further increase vulnerability to food insecurity, poverty, and conflicts over scarce resources (McGranahan & Wonkka, 2020). Furthermore, the heightened risk of natural wildfires due to increased temperatures can pose additional challenges to the region. Wildfires not only cause significant damage to ecosystems and wildlife but also pose threats to human lives and properties. The intensified occurrence of these fires can further strain the already limited resources available for firefighting and rehabilitation efforts.
Drought is highly correlated with crop failure, and in 2004, it was estimated that the combination of drought and flood accounted for 75-80% of monetary losses due to natural disasters in East Africa (Ayugi et al.2020)(Ogoti). The economic consequences of these extreme weather events can be devastating, eroding livelihoods and hindering overall development in the affected regions. Moreover, the increased frequency and duration of drought will also increase the risk of waterborne diseases by reducing the availability of clean water (Anas et al.2021). Communities that rely on limited water sources may face challenges in accessing safe drinking water, leading to a rise in diseases such as diarrhea, cholera, and dysentery(Lee et al., 2020) . This can further strain already stretched healthcare systems and increase the burden on vulnerable populations, particularly women and children.
In conclusion, the projected climatic changes in East Africa, including increased temperatures, droughts, intense rain events, and the associated risks of wildfires, desertification, and flooding, present significant challenges for the region (Haile et al.2020). Addressing these challenges will require comprehensive and adaptive strategies that aim to build resilient agricultural systems, improve water management, enhance disaster preparedness, and promote sustainable development (Gebrechorkos et al.2023). By taking proactive measures, East Africa can mitigate the potential negative impacts and build a more resilient future for its population and ecosystems.
4. Expanding Humanitarian Crises
The relationship between the types of humanitarian crises in Africa and current global economic structures was first recognized at the UN World Conference on Social Development in Copenhagen in 1995 (Väyrynen2023)(Zetter, 2021). There, it was acknowledged that it was not the shortage of money causing the persistence of poverty and humanitarian crises, but the way in which it was (and is) distributed (Jordan et al., 2021). Envisaged as an adherence to neoliberal ideologies, the consequence of this was believed to be that wealth was being transferred from poor states to rich ones, and from poor classes to the rich within all states. It is suggested that this is in turn creating a dual effect on the likelihood of occurrence and increase of different types of humanitarian crises in Africa.
First, it is leading to an increase in social and economic iniquity both between and within African states. For example, the financial resources within countries such as Uganda and Sudan by which to prevent or respond to humanitarian emergencies are extremely limited, and arguably it is a lack of resources (other than direct political will) rather than any shortcomings in the understanding of necessary approaches or policies, which is preventing action (Mena & Hilhorst, 2022). In contrast, economic globalization and weak governance has in some cases facilitated an increase in the volume of resources available to rebel movements and thus boosted their capacities to finance wars detrimental to humanitarian emergencies (Stites et al., 2021). In both instances the result is crises prevention and response is being made ever more difficult and undermined.
Second, mass privatization and deregulation measures which are typically structural adjustments required for international loans are resulting in a lowering of social protection standards in an attempt to cut state spending in the direction of health, education, and welfare (Busemeyer & Iversen, 2020). One such example has been the defunding and subsequent degradation of healthcare systems across a variety of African countries. Characteristic of an underfunded and unequal healthcare system in crises, a trend is occurring in which non-state and international actors such as NGOs, rebel groups, and UN Security Council interventions are accessing and taking control of the best available health resources. This is having a deepening effect on the continued relative deprivation of affected populations and has also been a direct cause of violent targeting of said resources (and employed humanitarian workers) in recent humanitarian conflicts(Kentikelenis & Stubbs, 2023) . In all the above, it is argued that the deepening of African humanitarian crises is a result of an economic agenda in which the continent is being integrated to serve the interests of a global economic system to which it is at a fundamental disadvantage.
4.1. Food Insecurity
Global food aid will wane and the least developed nations, home to growing numbers of people in need, will bear a disproportionate share of the burden of providing for themselves (Grote et al.2021). Estimated per capita food production in the low-income food-deficit countries was 7% less in 1999-01 than in 1996-98, while populations continued to grow at a rate of 2.5% per annum. East Africa will face a deficit of about 8 million tons of cereals by 2020, an increase of more than 60% on the 1995 level. Reduced capacity to import food, whether food aid or commercial transactions, will weigh most heavily on the poorest (Were, 2021). They will be increasingly cut off from international markets by protectionism in the North and will fail to benefit from liberalization of market access because of lack of competitiveness in exports.
The sugar agreement of the European Union (EU), which cut import prices for sugar by 36% while keeping out African exports through a quota system, has been estimated to cost the East African Community countries some $120 million in annual export earnings (Andreoni et al., 2020). Competing with subsidized exports is becoming harder, for instance Tanzanian rice producers estimated their losses from US and EU subsidies in 2001 at over $100 million. The Sure program in the US and use of the Food for Peace provision, which ties food aid to purchase and shipments on US-registered vessels, serve to boost domestic US commodity disposal at the expense of the food aid and agricultural sectors in recipient countries (Kornher & Von Braun, 2020). The welfare losses has been calculated for the agriculture of sub-Saharan Africa at $130 million due to US food aid and trade policies in 2001.
4.2. Refugee Crisis
Complex political emergencies can generate an overwhelming number of refugees and internally displaced people seeking safety and stability. Within the Great Lakes region, particularly in Burundi, Tanzania, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), there exists a looming possibility of witnessing a significant surge in population movement. The repercussions of the devastating genocide in Rwanda, which occurred in 1994, continue to reverberate throughout the Great Lakes region, deeply impacting its social, political, and economic landscape (Tenenbaum et al.2023). The enduring refugee crisis resulting from the genocide has left an indelible mark, shaping the trajectory of the region’s future (Taylor, 2020). Therefore, it is imperative to address this complex situation with utmost urgency, compassion, and comprehensive solutions to ensure the well-being and stability of the affected communities.
The large number of individuals who sought shelter in foreign nations from Rwanda, not to mention those who also sought refuge from Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), have unquestionably exerted a profound influence on the socio-political landscapes both in their host countries and the regions they originally departed from (Jacobs et al., 2020). It is an unmistakable twist of fate that, in certain instances, these displaced individuals have found themselves inadvertently entangled in further hostilities subsequent to their arrival in countries presumed to offer safety and sanctuary (Adong, 2021). This verity resonated alarmingly with the Rwandan populace who sought sanctuary in Zaire/DRC, ultimately finding themselves embroiled in the destructive and tumultuous conflicts that plagued the eastern part of that very nation.
People who have been internally displaced, and refugees returning to their home countries, often face acute and complex problems of repatriation and reintegration in the very places they once called home. The challenges they encounter are manifold, as a multitude of factors can hinder their successful return and assimilation (Kamta et al., 2020). One of the most pressing obstacles is the persistently high levels of insecurity that can prevail in their home areas, perpetuating a cycle of fear and uncertainty (Abidde, 2021). They will frequently find themselves exposed to a myriad of threats, not only from those who forced them to leave in the first place but also from others who have since taken possession of their property, blatantly disregarding their rights and disregarding any semblance of justice.
In this intricate and delicate context, former refugees and returnees may inadvertently become embroiled in new waves of migration if security conditions do not improve in their home areas (Macdonald & Porter, 2020). The dire circumstances they face may compel them to once again uproot their lives and seek sanctuary elsewhere (Micinski, 2023). Additionally, the persistence of insurmountable economic difficulties can further exacerbate the vulnerability of these individuals, making it increasingly challenging for them to rebuild their lives and regain their footing in their respective communities.
The journey towards repatriation and reintegration is multifaceted and requires comprehensive and sustainable solutions. Efforts must be made to ensure the safety and security of those returning, addressing the underlying causes of insecurity and protecting their rights and possessions (King & Kuschminder, 2022). Simultaneously, it is paramount to provide the necessary support systems and resources to alleviate the overwhelming economic burdens they may face (Dzięglewski, 2021). Without holistic approaches and concerted international cooperation, the cycle of displacement, return, and potential re-displacement may perpetuate, posing continued challenges for individuals who yearn for stability, peace, and a place to call home.
4.3. Health Epidemics
The United Nations, an international organization focused on promoting peace, security, and social progress, has recently declared that the upcoming year has the potential to bring about a “most severe humanitarian catastrophe since the conclusion of the Cold War” (Abdenur, 2020). This dire prediction primarily stems from the anticipated pandemics and escalating mortality rates worldwide. In the context of East Africa, the region has been plagued by numerous health crises in recent times, resulting in significant numbers of fatalities (Katale et al.2020). The alarming spread of diseases in this area can be attributed to multiple factors, including a severe shortage of healthcare professionals, inadequate allocation of resources, and a lack of cohesive coordination among nations in tackling healthcare matters (Kassegn & Endris, 2021).
Compounding these already dire circumstances, the situation is further worsened by what many perceive as counterproductive economic policies espoused by specific global institutions (Majiwa et al., 2024). These policies seemingly hinder efforts to address health-related issues effectively, exacerbating the overall healthcare crisis and further endangering vulnerable populations within East Africa. The lack of resources in the health sector is currently turning into a crisis. The region has 28% of the world’s disease burden and only 3% of the world’s health care workers (Muthuri et al., 2020). Yet in recent years, there has been a reduction of investment into health in countries in the region. Debt repayments required by international financial institutions, Structural Adjustment Programs, and policies leading to government budget reductions have all played a key role in this reduction in spending (Onohuean et al.2022). This is in spite of the fact that the true economic cost of the debt is likely to be overestimated, the failure of these frameworks in the region, and the acknowledgment that investment in health is key to economic development. This debt situation has also resulted in a “brain drain” from healthcare professions as many workers seek better opportunities in other countries. This has increased the burden on the few health workers that remain.
5. Security Issues
Since the 1990s, terrorism has become one of the most prevalent forms of political violence for East Africa (Kamau, 2021). Political instability and ongoing conflicts throughout the region have created the perfect environment for the recruitment and execution of terrorist activities. This has led to devastating consequences for the affected states and the entire region as a whole (Katusiime, 2022). The threats posed by terrorist organizations have been a constant source of fear and uncertainty among the population. Although some states, such as Tanzania and Uganda, have managed to navigate through these turbulent times with relative stability, their proximity to neighboring countries puts them at a high risk (Nyamwaka). The interconnectedness of East Africa means that conflicts and acts of terrorism in one country can easily spill over and affect others. These regional dynamics further exacerbate the already precarious situation.
One of the most infamous incidents highlighting the vulnerability of East Africa to terrorist attacks is the 1998 bombings of the US embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania (Gay Jr, 2021). These heinous acts of violence, claimed by al-Qaida, resulted in a devastating loss of lives, with a combined death toll of 224 and almost 5000 injuries (Raitt et al.2021). The shockwaves of these attacks reverberated throughout the region, leaving a lasting impact on the collective psyche of East Africa. The threat of terrorism has not diminished since then. Al-Qaida and its affiliated groups continue to target East Africa, as evidenced by the double bombing in Uganda’s capital during the 2010 World Cup Final (Ekanem, 2022). Al-Shabaab, a Somalia-based terrorist organization affiliated with al-Qaida, claimed responsibility for these attacks. Their actions, fueled by extremist ideologies, have created a climate of fear and insecurity, not only in Uganda but also in Kenya (Nyandong, 2023). In fact, al-Shabaab has explicitly threatened further attacks in Uganda and Kenya if peacekeeping forces are not withdrawn from Somalia.
These recurrent acts of terrorism have not only claimed innocent lives but have also undermined the stability and reputation of certain states in East Africa (Kingdon & Gray, 2022). The constant state of alertness required to combat these threats has put a strain on governmental institutions and resources, diverting attention and funds from other pressing issues. To counter the persistent menace of terrorism, concerted efforts have been made to strengthen state and regional capacities for prevention and response (ABUBAKAR, 2020). In this regard, the East Africa Community (EAC), comprising Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda, has taken significant steps towards ensuring peace and security in the region. Recently, the EAC ratified the EAC Protocol on Peace and Security to the Operationalization of the Peace and Security Council (Munyangabe, 2020). This protocol aims to enhance cooperation among member states in effectively addressing terrorism and other security challenges.
Additionally, the EAC established its own standby peacekeeping force, ready to deploy in times of crisis. This regional security mechanism serves as a crucial tool in maintaining peace and stability within East Africa (Birantamije, 2021. By fostering collaboration and proactive measures, the EAC is striving to tackle the root causes of terrorism and prevent its further spread (Oduma, 2020). These initiatives, along with other counter-terrorism strategies, may yield positive results in the long run. However, in the short term, the threat of terrorism still looms large over East Africa (Rotich, 2020). The region continues to grapple with the daunting task of safeguarding its citizens and protecting its interests while simultaneously addressing the underlying socio-political issues driving extremism. The path towards a secure future requires not only regional cooperation but also international support and solidarity (Omenma & Onyango, 2020). By working together and sharing resources, East Africa can overcome the challenges posed by terrorism and restore peace and stability to its nations (Mkuti, 2022). Only through a collective and unwavering commitment to peace can East Africa confront the complex web of terrorism that threatens its very existence.
5.1. Terrorism and Extremism
Militant and extremist groups can be found in many countries of East Africa, but terrorism is currently only a major issue in Somalia and Kenya. Al-Hijra, previously known as the “Muslim Youth Center”, has been banned in Kenya and is suspected of having ties to Al-Qaeda (Mutuma & Thuo, 2022). It has been held responsible for the grenade attacks in Nairobi in late 2011. Al-Shabaab has also been held accountable for a series of bombings in Uganda after the country sent troops to Somalia. The most notorious of these attacks was the twin suicide bombings in Kampala in July 2010, that targeted crowds watching the 2010 FIFA World Cup Final, killing 74 people and injuring many more. Al-Shabaab justified the attacks as retaliation for Uganda’s involvement in the conflict in Somalia, and warned of more attacks if the troops were not withdrawn (Ibrahim Shire, 2023). These groups still remain a threat, and will likely capitalize on any further instability in Kenya or politically fragile situation in the new state of South Sudan to increase their power and influence.
In Kenya, there is a growing concern that terrorism may experience a substantial surge, primarily as a result of the discontent that exists among certain segments of the coastal population and the Muslim community (Gichira, 2020). These groups feel marginalized by the government, which has created a fertile breeding ground for extremist ideologies. The situation became strikingly clear in 2012 when the Mombasa Republican Council emerged as a separatist organization in the Coast Province (Tyitende, 2021). The government has accused this group of maintaining connections with radical extremist factions, intensifying the apprehension surrounding terrorism. Consequently, this shift in tactics has brought about a significant departure from prior sporadic attacks, as organized gun and grenade assaults have been directed towards civilian targets in the greater North Eastern Province (Thiong’o et al., 2022). Such acts have instilled fear in the hearts of many residing in the region and have prompted the imposition of strict restrictions that prohibit humanitarian agencies from accessing the area.
5.2. Cross-Border Conflicts
Kenya has faced a number of security issues in recent years. One of the most significant security challenges is the security issue arising from its neighboring countries. The most notable incursions are primarily from the Somali militia groups, namely the Ras Kamboni militia and Al-Shabaab (Menkhaus, 2021). These armed groups have been known to conduct frequent raids across the border into Kenya, causing significant disruptions and instability. These incursions have occurred on numerous occasions, with one notable incident being the occupation of the town of Hulugho by the Somali militia for approximately a week (Korotayev & Voronina, 2024). The prolonged occupation of a Kenyan town by foreign militants is highly detrimental to the Kenyan government, as the people demand and expect to be protected.
The repercussions of these security breaches extend beyond the government’s ability to maintain a secure environment for growth. The tourism sector, which plays a vital role in the Kenyan economy, is also heavily impacted by these incursions (Njoya et al., 2022). Such incidents involving raids into Kenyan territory pose a complex security issue that is challenging to monitor and address effectively without physically venturing into Somali soil (Ryley, 2020). However, any decision to step foot on Somali soil is met with resistance in Kenya due to the historical presence of Somali raiders occupying parts of Kenya’s northeast region, along with numerous reports of atrocities committed by the militia in Kenyan towns and villages. Therefore, addressing this issue requires a careful balance to prevent further escalation and ensure the safety and security of both nations.
In addition to these incursions, there is a potential for a conflict arising from a water dispute involving the Tana River (Niyitunga, 2023). This issue is compounded by the pressures of climate change, which intensify the demand and competition for the river’s resources. If Kenya is forced to navigate these issues while also facing pressure from Sudan over the ownership of the Migingo islands, the potential for cross-border conflicts to escalate into a larger, more destructive interstate conflict becomes a disturbing possibility (Turhan, 2021). The consequences of such a conflict would have an extremely detrimental effect not only on Kenya but also on the entire East African region in the coming decade. It is crucial for Kenya to address these security challenges promptly and effectively through diplomatic means, regional cooperation, and careful management of resources to mitigate potential conflicts and ensure lasting peace and stability in the region.
5.3. Arms Proliferation
The Sudanese war has also provided a grim reminder of the destructive capabilities of modern weapons on indigenous civilian populations. Antonov bombing runs in Darfur and SPLA incursions into Upper Nile have displaced thousands of people from their homes and villages, leading to further humanitarian crises (Dixon, 2020). And despite the best efforts of aid agencies and NGOs, the security situation in many of these war-torn areas still makes it very difficult to deliver humanitarian assistance to those most in need (Jok, 2021). High-profile violent clashes and conflicts such as these continue to reinforce the negative stereotypes of Africa to the outside world and make the prospect of long-term stability and development seem increasingly distant.
The distribution of arms has played a significant but understated role in the conflicts in East Africa. The surplus of weapons left behind from numerous civil wars and rebellions has given rise to a culture of violence and facilitated the rapid expansion of many small-scale conflicts into larger, more destructive wars. Regional arms races have taken place, most notably between Ethiopia and Eritrea (Mwagiru). The large-scale war between these two countries in 1998-2000 resulted in an estimated 70,000 dead on both sides and a combined cost in military spending of about $1 million a day(Mulat, 2020) . With the conflict in Sudan recently escalating following the southern secession, providing easier access to more advanced weaponry for both the North and South, and the already volatile situation in Kenya, the potential for further, more destructive conflicts in the region is worryingly high.
6. Social Unrest
To combat the high unemployment rates of educated youth, Kenya has tried to increase access to education by limiting the number of school places available. This is due to the lack of resources and infrastructure to accommodate Kenya’s growing population, as well as an attempt to curb youth unemployment by pushing to make the unskilled workers of the current generation stay in rural areas (Apollo & Mbah, 2021). Although this results in a higher percentage of students completing secondary school, it has led to a decrease in education quality and has not necessarily curbed the unemployment rates of urban youth. Due to the poor economic conditions, as many as 12 million children in East Africa are not in school. This has created a cyclical system of poverty (Moshtari & Safarpour, 2024). For example, many Tanzanians do not send their children to school because they cannot afford school fees or they need their children to work and bring in additional income. Uneducated children lead to unskilled employment and the cycle perpetuates itself (Tessema et al., 2021). Gender disparities as well as regional and rural/urban disparities are prevalent in the education system and have widened the divisions between social classes. High education quality and access is necessary for securing better future prospects for East Africa and has a long way to come.
Economic crises have diligently and relentlessly paved their way into the very core of social order within the captivating landscapes of East Africa, unleashing waves of profound frustration and tumultuous unrest. The resounding echoes of this dire situation resonate especially in the vibrant nations of Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania (Lokuruka, 2020). As if painted with shades of disarray, these countries find themselves immersed in a precarious dance of instability and tension, as a staggering 80% or more of their respective populations exist beneath the youthful age of 30. Trapped within this unforgiving labyrinth, the staggering rates of youth unemployment reverberate like an unending crescendo, birthing an unsettling symphony of discontent (Alfonsi et al.2020). A cyclical system emerges, one that ensnares the dreams and aspirations of countless young souls, pushing them further and further away from the shores of hope. With each passing year, as the number of students triumphantly completes their educational journey, the insatiable hunger for livelihood intensifies, casting a dark shadow upon the path towards prosperity.
Suffocating beneath the weight of limited opportunities, Tanzania stands as an undeniable testament to the cruel realities faced by those who venture into the realms of completion and knowledge. In a realm where primary education is not shrouded in the ironclad grip of compulsion, those who valiantly tread this path are met with a harsh truth—a disheartening absence of any better prospects for the educated (Ochieng & Yeonsung, 2021). Thus, a harrowing void emerges, poised to consume the dreams of a nation. Adrift amidst this turbulent sea, the high crime rates in Kenya paint a haunting portrait, their brushstrokes drenched in the desperation of countless souls (Gupta, 2020). Moreover, thousands upon thousands of undocumented and illegal workers weave their way into the intricate tapestry of Tanzania, their footsteps echoing the solemn plea for survival, as they journey from the shores of Kenya and Uganda.
As the curtain unravels upon this narrative, it reveals a truth steeped in adversity and despair. The rural corners of East Africa find themselves devoid of resources and arable land, pushing the disheartened and disillusioned youth to seek refuge within the bustling embrace of cities (Guardia et al., 2021). Yet, as they flock to these modern marvels, aspiration in hand and hope in heart, a cruel reality strikes them with unyielding force. The absence of higher education and vocational skills becomes a tempestuous barrier, effectively rendering them powerless in the face of a bloated job market that thrives upon academic prowess. In this treacherous battle for survival, the flames of aspiration begin to flicker, casting a desolate shadow upon a generation yearning for opportunity (Ebuenyi et al., 2020). Thus, we bear witness to an untold tale of turmoil and struggle—where economic crises have morphed into generators of social unrest, and where the vibrant spirit of East Africa remains imprisoned within the shackles of limited prospects (Sumberg et al.2021). As the curtain falls upon this somber stage, we are left with a piercing realization: that the liberation of these fertile lands lies not solely in economic revival, but within the empowering embrace of education, skills, and equitable opportunities.
6.1. Youth Unemployment
Youth unemployment in Tanzania is a pressing issue that needs immediate attention. Currently, the unemployment rate among young people in Tanzania stands at a concerning 21% (Sanga, 2020). This means that a significant portion of the youth population is struggling to find stable and secure employment opportunities (Kumbi, 2023). To make matters worse, urban youth in Tanzania are faced with the daunting prospect of waiting for an average of 7 long years before they can secure a formal job (Sumberg et al.2020). This prolonged period of waiting not only hampers their economic growth but also delays their transition into adulthood, as they struggle to navigate the challenges and responsibilities that come with it.
Similarly, the situation in Kenya is equally alarming. Shockingly, only 4% of Kenyan youth have access to wage employment that can be considered even remotely secure. The majority of young people in Kenya are left with no choice but to rely on subsistence jobs, where they fend for themselves by cultivating their own sources of livelihood (Kiiru & Barasa, 2020). This not only indicates a lack of job opportunities but also highlights the prevalence of precarious employment conditions that hinder sustainable growth. A term that has gained prominence in Kenya is the “waithood” experienced by its youth (Aellah, 2021). This refers to the state of being stuck in a perpetual waiting game, where young individuals anxiously anticipate the availability of suitable jobs while postponing their engagement in normal adult activities. As a result, the youth are caught in a frustrating cycle, unable to fully participate in society and contribute to its progress.
Turning our attention to Uganda, we find another disheartening statistic. An overwhelming 83% of the working-age population in Uganda is engaged in what is referred to as vulnerable employment (Guloba et al.2021). In other words, the majority of working individuals find themselves in precarious and insecure work arrangements, lacking proper social protection and facing the constant fear of income instability (Walsham, 2023). This not only perpetuates a cycle of poverty but also exacerbates the challenges faced by the youth in their quest for a better future. It is important to recognize that high rates of unemployment inevitably lead to an increase in property and violent crimes. When individuals are devoid of legitimate and stable means of earning a living, desperation can drive them towards illegal activities as they struggle to survive (Jawadi et al.2021). This poses a threat to the overall well-being and security of the society, necessitating urgent measures to address the root causes of unemployment and create opportunities for sustainable growth and development.
As stated in the Central Intelligence Agency’s July 2002 East Africa study, “The high rates of unemployment and under-employment across the region represent a potentially explosive problem.” This rings especially true for Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda. Tanzania has an overall unemployment rate of 15% which does not include the 47% of the population considered to be “working poor” (Aremu et al.2021). In Kenya, the overall unemployment rate is 40% with urban youth unemployment reaching peaks of 60-65%. Hopeful to avoid social unrest, Uganda’s government released its Poverty Eradication Action Plan in 1999 which aimed “to increase the population’s access to factors of production and to expand employment opportunities” and to “build the long run capacity of the poor to improve the quality of their lives” (Walker, 2023).
6.2. Education Disparities
There exists a system of elite secondary schools in each of the three East African countries – Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. The quality of education and chances of passing the final examination from these schools far surpass those of ordinary or “up-country” schools. In Kenya, the top students from each school district are sent to National schools or to Provincial schools (Amutuhaire2023). The students at the National schools generally come from the largest urban centers and the most populous rural areas. Selection for secondary school places is determined by the candidate’s score on the Primary School Leaving Examination (PSLE). The examination is held at the end of Standard Seven (age 13/14)(Bennell, 2021) . The up-country schools have the lowest quality teachers, substandard facilities, and are often understaffed with teachers.
In Tanzania, some “A level” secondary schools are only available to Form IV graduates. This means that less than 10% of the students who reach this grade have a chance of continuing into the “A level” courses (Ishengoma, 2023). The disparities in Uganda’s education system are similar to those in Kenya and Tanzania. The most able students go to the Traditional Secondary Schools (TSS) and the least able go to the Uganda Junior Secondary Schools (UJSS). TSS’s have better infrastructure, a higher quality of teachers, and smaller class sizes. UJSS’s are often underfunded and have a shortage of qualified teachers (Mgaya et al.2022). This system of academic selection categorizes students into distinct social groups and institutionalizes inequality. High-scoring students move on to the best schools, then to the best universities, and finally into the top-earning jobs. Low-scoring students move into lower quality schools, then onto low-paying jobs or unemployment. This will perpetuate and intensify social inequality in these countries by limiting the social mobility of future generations.
6.3. Gender Inequality
Job inequality is intensified by women’s lack of employable skills, heightened by education disparities. Many women grasp only a limited primary education that is insufficient in preparing them for a job in the market (Bennell, 2021). Due to financial barriers or support for the education of sons instead of daughters, female dropout rates are higher and very few women get the chance to progress to secondary education where most job skills are acquired. A lack of education is accompanied by a general lack of professional skills and confidence to secure formal employment (Melak & Singh, 2021). This issue is very prevalent in rural and traditional areas where women have less access to skill-enhancing opportunities to improve their employment potential.
Tied to employment inequality, women suffer a large wage gap in comparison to men in similar positions. Women working in the formal sector in small enterprises or household enterprises earn exceptionally low wages because their enterprises are smaller, employ fewer workers, and generate less income (Southall, 2023). On average, women earn between 20 and 35 per cent less than men for doing the same job. In the informal sector, this percentage is even higher. In 2004, women casual workers earned only 40 per cent and female smallholder farmers in Kenya only 30 per cent of what corresponding men earned (Mains & Mulat, 2021). At the rate of the current trend, it will take approximately thirty years for the wage gap to close in the formal sector.
Without being objective, and with a serious case of gender stereotyping in East Africa, women face an uphill battle when it comes to finding, securing, and staying in a job. Despite being a very important figure in the economic stability of East African society, men are still the dominant force when it comes to the working sector (Muthuri et al., 2020). The stereotype that a man’s place is working and a woman’s place is in the home is still very strong in East African culture, and the evident lack of women in the workforce (Aryal et al., 2021). Another employment issue that women face is the lack of respect from their male counterparts who believe that they are not worthy of holding the same position and thus do not afford women equal opportunities to secure a job.
7. Regional Cooperation Efforts
On various occasions, East African states have earnestly endeavored to make significant progress towards peace and economic stability through meticulously coordinated efforts to address the pervasive continent-wide situation, all in the noble spirit of the OAU Charter (Fisher, 2020). It is worth highlighting that East African heads of state convened a momentous summit in the illustrious month of July, precisely in the transformative year of 1993 (Walsh, 2022). This unparalleled gathering served as the paramount assembly of esteemed dignitaries from the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), distinguished state mediators, diligent overseers of the two essential Peace Initiatives, which were meticulously devised for the former Somalia and Sudan Conflict Resolutions Processes, and the visionary leaders of the Climaxon Peace, Security, and Sustainable Development process (Amuhaya & Degterev, 2022).
The convergence of these immensely consequential sessions, along with their multilayered and all-encompassing agenda, indisputably created an ideal and auspicious platform poised to breathe new life into the pursuit of sustainable peace and development on a regional and collective African scale (Vaughan et al., 2020). It is of utmost importance to acknowledge the complex and challenging climate that engulfs the region, wherein persistent conflicts, intractable ethnic strife, and debilitating diseases continue to afflict and torment the very fabric of society (Kamau, 2023). Nevertheless, the visionary heads of state at that illustrious time displayed unparalleled courage and determination by undertaking bold and audacious measures that extended beyond the confines of their own frontiers, as they embarked on an arduous quest for enduring peace, unshakable security, and equitable development.
It is pertinent to emphasize that both of the groundbreaking initiatives that were robustly inaugurated indeed constitute pivotal and propitious factors that will undoubtedly propel the region towards the cherished ideals of genuine peace, comprehensive security, and holistic development (Shajema, 2020). More explicitly, the enlightened decision to appoint highly skilled and experienced state mediators, meticulous oversight mechanisms, and technically proficient officers meticulously tasked with overseeing the Sudan Conflict Resolution Process represents an indispensable milestone on the path to reconciling and rectifying the deep-seated grievances that have plagued the Sudanese nation (Karomba et al., 2020).
Additionally, it is imperative to underscore the commendable formulation of a comprehensive regional strategy meticulously crafted to encompass the intricate dynamics of intra and IGAD relations as they pertain to the indispensable goals of disarmament, recovery, and seamless reintegration (Oduma, 2020). This groundbreaking strategy holds immense promise and serves as a beacon of hope for all those striving to foster enduring stability, steadfast security, and sustained development throughout the region (Ali, 2023). Furthermore, it is resoundingly evident that the unyielding commitment demonstrated by the visionary heads of state, complemented by the unwavering dedication of their esteemed colleagues and partners, has set into motion an intricate tapestry of transformative actions poised to reshape the socio-political landscape of the East African region (Cross & Neumark, 2021). The road ahead may be fraught with challenges and obstacles, but the bedrock of collective determination, shared vision, and unwavering resolve will undoubtedly pave the way towards a future where peace, security, and development reign supreme, forever transcending boundaries, dispelling discord, and fostering harmony among the diverse nations of East Africa (Tayebi, 2022).
7.1. Peacekeeping Initiatives
Peacekeeping on the broadest terms may not be occurring within the region of East Africa as it is generally envisioned, as it is in the minds of many who are unfamiliar with the specifics of the situation (Duursma, 2021). Within the peacekeeping section of the Organization of African Unity (Congressional Quarterly, Global Monitor), African nations are hesitant to commit large numbers of troops to peacekeeping missions in neighboring countries (Williams, 2023). In the case of East African countries where instability still reigns, such as Sudan or Somalia, peacekeeping action is still a ways off. The Sudan, which tops GlobalSecurity.org’s Failed States Index, has relatively recently signed an agreement with the United Nations for the deployment of peacekeepers to protect civilians in the war-torn region of Darfur (Forti, 2022). Unfortunately, continued violence and harassment towards the arriving peacekeepers and the civilians they are to protect has led to a push by UN officials for larger commitments by countries with the facilities and capability to help quell the violence (Kostelyanets, 2023). This has received mixed receptions from developed nations, with no clear resolution at the time of this writing.
The situation in Somalia, which is adverse across the board, has seen hopeful signs for the future with the recent steps taken by the Transitional Federal Government to meet benchmarks for future security sector funding from the international community (Beyene, 2020). A broad assessment of these steps (The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies) indicates moderate steps towards the viability of a Security Sector Development and Reform (SSDR) plan which, if properly implemented and thoroughly monitored, may bring a notable increase in safety for the Somali citizenry in the future (Raballand et al., 2022). An environment of international confidence would be necessary for the implementation of DDR (disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration) programs also cited in the assessment, which is to follow comprehensive SSR measures (Robinson & Matisek, 2021). With Somalia as an African Union member state, the recent and also future developments could tie in to a continental peacekeeping mission such as the Conflict Prevention and Resolution Plan in H.E.G (Bakina, 2023). This is all a long way off and would be contingent on the assumption that current and future elections with Somali lawmakers would produce safe and favorable outcomes (Oduma, 2020). The potential expansion of peacekeeping efforts in East Africa relies on collaborative partnerships and effective implementation strategies to create a lasting impact on the stability and security of the region(Fafore, 2020) .
7.2. Economic Integration
The key to the success of Kenyatta’s plan is whether the other partner states have faith in the soundness of his vision and their place within it. This confidence has been at a scarce premium in recent years with Kenyan unilateral policy incensing its partners often to the assumption that Kenya only has its own interests at heart (Trouille et al., 2021). The above immigration policy is a noted exception in kind behavior, especially towards Uganda, with vocal concern for the treatment of its citizens and businesses in light of various protectionist Kenyan trade policies. According to officials in the Ministry of EAC Affairs and various analysts, the current feeling of partnership is at its lowest ebb since the re-institution of the Community (ABUBAKAR, 2020). It is generally felt that although they have displayed intransigence on many issues, the isolation of Tanzania and Uganda from a more proactive Kenya has been to the detriment of all.
Thus, it is widely felt that with the upcoming change in Tanzanian leadership, postulation of a grand redefined Community may be well-timed. This idea has been alluded to by Uganda and spoken more frankly by Tanzania as a ‘pause’ to assess what has been achieved and if the integration process can be made more effective (O’Reilly & Heron, 2023). This includes recent statements by Tanzanian President Mkapa urging that “it is better to walk slowly and together than to run alone” with a valid euphemism on past events (Umulisa, 2020). In short, if Kenyatta can assure its partners that a common market will benefit all states and that an integrated Kenya is committed to shared decisions on regional policy, the region may, for the first time in a long while, be united on a single quest for change in the community.
Principally, Kenyatta hopes to encourage investment in East Africa from local and international sources. Key to his plan is refocusing the debate on East African economic integration to the establishment of a common market first, above all other priorities (Komuhangi, 2023). This entails a focus on the regional movement of factors of production – capital and labour – as an impetus for development. Kenyatta sees this as an important step to encourage business magnets to locate their industries in East Africa due to ease of production and subsequent easier access to a larger regional market (Ng’imor, 2020). It is hoped that this sequence of integration will cause more rapid development throughout the region, avoiding the creation of ‘enclave economies’ around the production of certain goods as has been the case with the preferential trade access and the East African Community’s Customs Union. To demonstrate some progress on this policy at the regional level, Kenya has finally committed to fully removing work permit requirements for Ugandans and Tanzanians, albeit with some delay in implementation due to protestations from sectors of Kenya’s business community (Umulisa, 2020). This exemplifies the type of policy that Kenyatta would like to see, visionary and impactful, though predicated by the necessity of political concessions in implementation.
7.3. Diplomatic Relations
With the enmity between countries raised by the wars, the aid given to rebels and previous support for invading forces, diplomatic efforts must be in place to ensure that the scale of relations between the countries does not spark off another war. In 1996, Uganda and Rwanda had a dispute that almost led to armed conflict (O’Reilly, 2023). Uganda accused Rwanda of supporting the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army in order to destabilize the country and fuel the flames of chaos (Okwama, 2021). An independent investigation conducted at the time gave credence to the serious allegation made by Uganda, adding weight to their claims (Francis, 2022). Although there is still a high level of mistrust and deep-rooted animosity between the two countries, the resumption of diplomatic ties and the signing of an agreement to cease all hostilities has greatly contributed to the gradual improvement and advancement of their mutual relations, thus successfully averting further escalation towards devastating warfare.
Furthermore, it is essential to acknowledge the intricate dynamics between Uganda and Sudan, which have undoubtedly impacted the broader regional stability in East Africa (O’Reilly, 2023). Tensions between Sudan and newly independent South Sudan have been prevalent, exacerbated by the long-standing association between Uganda and Sudan. During the brutal civil war, Sudan provided substantial support to the rebels in South Sudan, leading to numerous cross-border raids and escalating tension between the two nations (Gasto, 2022). The persisting concerns in Sudan regarding potential support from South Sudan to southern rebels further strained their delicate relationship, with both countries teetering on the brink of all-out war on multiple occasions throughout the 2000s.
Nonetheless, a glimmer of hope shines as we observe recent developments in the region (O’Reilly & Vaughan, 2024). Since 2010, relations between South Sudan and Uganda have undergone a commendable transformation, gradually paving the way for improved relations between Sudan and Uganda as well. With the significant influence of Uganda, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, there is a steadfast hope that further mediation efforts and constructive dialogues will successfully address the deep-rooted issues that continue to plague the Sudans (Ruhangisa et al., 2020). Uganda, acting as a neutral and trusted facilitator, has embraced the critical responsibility of hosting crucial talks between the two nations, aiming to foster understanding, reconciliation, and durable peace in the region.
However, it is crucial to remain vigilant and cautiously assess the potential consequences of Uganda’s involvement in South Sudan’s upcoming December elections (Кабоігора, 2022). While Uganda’s intentions may be driven by a genuine desire to promote stability and foster democratic processes in its neighboring country, there is a legitimate concern that such involvement may inadvertently escalate tensions with Sudan, potentially rekindling old animosities. Striking the delicate balance between support and interference is crucial for Uganda as it navigates South Sudanese affairs, ensuring it does not jeopardize the already fragile relations in the region (Umulisa, 2020). In the broader context of the Great Lakes region, there is a collective aspiration for the revival of similar economic and political cooperation that has proven successful within the East African Community (EAC) (Waweru et al., 2020). The hope lies in the potential of such collaboration to bring much-needed stability and harmony to an otherwise volatile and conflict-ridden area (JANVIERE, 2023). Recognizing the transformative power of sustained and genuine partnerships, the nations within the Great Lakes region strive towards fostering deeper ties, mutual understanding, and proactive measures to address the root causes of internal conflicts, thus promoting lasting peace and prosperity for the region as a whole.
7.4. Quest for stability
The texts for the sections 7.2 and 7.3 illustrate clearly the size of the challenges in generating sustainable levels of economic development across most of the region. The key prerequisite for achieving this, which has already been touched upon, is the need for a peaceful and stable environment. Fearon and Laitin (1996b) have looked at the crippling economic impact of civil conflict in Africa. Countries suffering from a state of civil conflict are not only likely to experience a dramatic decline in economic growth, but this level of growth is unlikely to be sustainable in the long term. Wartime economies are characterized by a collapse in formal employment and the ruthless exploitation of both natural and human resources. In the long shadow of the war, it is not uncommon for the belligerent parties to persist negotiating the distribution of resources which they had come to control in the war. This situation can lead to a state of ‘warlordism’ defined by an absence of a functioning central authority and the setting up of a series of localized fiefdoms from which warlords extract resources to line their own pockets (Keen 1998).
Furthermore, it is crucial to emphasize the deep-rooted consequences of civil conflict on economic development. The extensive research conducted by experts in the field highlights the multifaceted effects that plague nations engulfed in civil strife. Their findings unequivocally demonstrate the catastrophic repercussions for economic growth, further exacerbating the struggle towards sustainability (Kassegn & Endris, 2021). With each passing day of conflict, the foundation of stability crumbles beneath the weight of turmoil. During times of war, economies endure severe perturbations, pushing them perilously close to the brink of collapse. The harrowing reality unfolds before the eyes of countless citizens, witnessing the deterioration of formal employment opportunities (Fisher, 2020). As the fabric of society unravels, the exploitation of precious natural resources and the exploitation of fellow human beings become distressingly common. The very essence of humanity, tainted by the insatiable greed that permeates these dark times.
The collapse of peace in East Africa in the 1980s and 1990s is amply demonstrated by the regional extent of civil conflict in the past 20 years (Murphy, 2022). Intra-state conflict has been the most likely form of warfare in post-colonial East Africa, and many have been both initiated and perpetuated by ruling regimes who have sought to quell armed opposition groups and retain their grip on power (Fisher, 2020). Uganda in the 1970s and 1980s, Marina’s War in Mozambique, and The Tanzanian and Sudanese Second Civil Wars have left long-lasting scars. War can also lead to long-lasting negative consequences for economic development. Detailed economic studies of Uganda have pointed out how Idi Amin’s coup and the successive wars of the late 1970s and 1980s led to a complete collapse of the economy, pushed the vast majority of the population into a state of abject poverty, and decimated the educated and skilled human resources base from which Uganda is still yet to recover (Collier and O’Connell, 2001).
In addition to the aforementioned conflicts, other countries in East Africa, such as Kenya, Rwanda, and Ethiopia, have also experienced their fair share of instability and turmoil. The widespread prevalence of armed opposition groups, insurgencies, and rebellions has further exacerbated the situation, leading to a continuous cycle of violence and destruction. This regional pattern of conflict highlights the deep-rooted challenges that East Africa has faced and continues to face in terms of maintaining peace and stability (Maza et al., 2021). Moreover, the impact of these conflicts goes beyond the immediate devastation and loss of lives. The long-term consequences on the economic development of the region have been staggering. The disruption caused by prolonged periods of warfare has hindered the growth of industries, stifled foreign investments, and impeded the creation of sustainable livelihoods for the local populations (Moshtari & Safarpour, 2024). East Africa, once considered a promising hub for economic progress, has been hindered by the scars of war and the challenges of rebuilding in the aftermath.
Furthermore, the collapse of the economy in countries like Uganda serves as a stark reminder of the far-reaching effects of conflict. The upheaval caused by political coups and subsequent armed conflicts not only resulted in a complete breakdown of infrastructure but also led to the displacement of communities, loss of livelihoods, and a profound sense of hopelessness (Izama, 2020). The human resources that were once the backbone of these nations’ progress were severely depleted, leaving a void that has yet to be filled. As East Africa continues to navigate the road to recovery, it is crucial to address the root causes of conflict and prioritize peace-building efforts (Sterl et al., 2021). The scars of the past must serve as lessons for future generations, reminding them of the importance of diplomacy, inclusivity, and sustainable development. Only through collective action and a commitment to lasting peace can East Africa overcome the challenges it faces and reclaim its rightful place as a region of hope, prosperity, and unity.
Conclusions:
Efforts at mediating an end to the conflicts and deals have landed some impressive results in terms of peace. From the incredibly loose base of the peace talks at the Nairobi Technical Committee to the Peace Accord signed by the governments of the DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda in July 2002, significant progress has been made. The presence of numerous peace agreements, including the Arusha Accords and the Abuja Agreements, have had a profoundly positive effect on the initiatives to end the conflicts. The tireless negotiations and diplomatic efforts, led by the United Nations, the African Union, and regional leaders, have played a pivotal role in facilitating these historic breakthroughs. However, the limited successes of the past few years are overshadowed by the gravity of the continued conflicts and the extensive impacts of these conflicts on the future socio-economic prospects of these nations and the overall well-being of their people.
The devastating consequences of prolonged violence, such as displacement, loss of lives, and eroded infrastructure, persist despite these notable achievements. While peace processes have yielded some encouraging results, it is clear that more work needs to be done to address the root causes of these conflicts and to ensure a lasting peace in the region. It is perhaps a refreshing change from the colonial and cold war era interventionist strategies to witness the current attempts to resolve conflicts through peace processes facilitated by the United Nations, the African Union, and even African governments themselves. This collaborative approach emphasizes the importance of multilateral efforts and regional ownership in finding sustainable solutions. While the extent to which internal and external factors of the conflicts have been effectively addressed in the peace processes remains a point of concern, the existence of concerted efforts to facilitate peace in the region is undoubtedly a step in the right direction. The weakness of the state emerges as an underlying causative factor of the conflicts, and assessing the progress made in resolving this issue raises questions.
The state’s inability to establish law and order effectively and to serve the interests of the people has created fertile ground for the coercion and violence perpetrated by warring factions. These factions, motivated by their own agendas, exploit the weakness of state institutions, ensuring that the conflicts endure and perpetuate further devastation. Extensive human rights abuses and the rise of violent youth mobs are symptomatic of the state’s failure to provide security and socio-economic opportunities. If Africa’s future lies in the creation of strong, capable states, as argued by the Realist school, it is evident that there is still a long way to go. Achieving this vision hinges upon the self-determination and capacity-building of future state leaderships, as well as a resolute resistance against external influences that often exacerbate conflicts. An inclusive and participatory process, driven by the aspirations of the African people themselves, is crucial in shaping the future of the continent. By nurturing accountable and transparent governance, promoting equitable development, and fostering a culture of peace, Africa can overcome the challenges it faces and pave the way for a prosperous and harmonious future.
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Dr. Elsadig Elfaqih
DOI:10.36360/1560-012-004-006
